Re: The Coming Pandemic
- From: "roseyposey" <rosie.zalduataylor@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 20 Oct 2005 09:31:07 +0000 (UTC)
"Nicholas" <njloch@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:3c200$4356d1dd$4e0542d$12359@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Tightwad wrote:
> > Itt seems the Bird Flue is growing expotentially and will arrive here
> > shortly by migrating wild species.
> > What are folks going to do to keep, presumably all wild birds, of any
> > kind, out of contact with feed, fowl, or the ground they normally
utilize?
>
> What coming pandemic? I don't believe there will be a pandemic. The
> flu has yet to cause mass casualties in humans. It probably won't!
>
> Read the news again, the media and governments are hyping this, but they
> do say "POSSIBLE PANDEMIC".. It hasn't happened! Don't panic yet
> people!
>
> It may be prudent to take precautions with our flocks. I will move my
> chickies indoors if needed, but I only have a dozen birds.
>
> Nicholas
Nicholas, I wholeheartedly agree.
I attended a talk last night which covered this topic and the unwarranted
histeria it is already causing. A few specific facts were emphasised.
1. So called 'avian flu' is not a new phenomenon - all human flu is a
variant of the original flu virus attached to birds, that is where flu
viruses originated in man.
2. This particuar strain whilst serious and deadly and potentially
devastating within certain areas of the the bird population has only
crossed species to a relatively small number of human individuals, it has
yet to mutate so that it is contagious from one human to another. So far
all the human casualties have only been directly infected directly by
contact with infected birds - not from another person - and usually in areas
where there is a locally high proximity of water fowl.
Whilst governments, (and poultry keepers) are quite right to be very
vigilant and to take this matter very seriously, the media hype is gross
scare -mongering in most cases and as is often the case, more harm is caused
to humans (and the poor animals involved) by the alarmists and
over-reactions of many than is caused by the disease itself (eg. SARS, BSE -
variant CJD)
- for example with BSE the risk assessment was reduced from a predicted
'pandemic' to "Currently this risk appears to be very small - perhaps fewer
than one case per 10 billion servings - if the risk exists at all"
(University of Virginia, 2003) over the course of 3 years. However the
distress caused to many farmers and their families, even resulting in
suicide in some cases, was far more widespread and damaging than the handful
of extra reported cases (CJD also was around before the media
sensationalised it) which could not be conclusively linked to beef
consumption and even included vegetarians!
What I'm trying to say folks is yes, be vigilant, be aware and follow the
progress of this carefully (I too will keep my hens confined if it becomes
necessary for their/ my family's protection) particularly if you live in a
high risk environment, but currently the possibility for a human pandemic is
minimal, and unless it mutates to become infectious between humans it is
something we should all view with a degree of rationalisation. Remember the
pharmaceutical companies stand to benefit tremendously from the media
promotion (Roche have already quadrupled their production since last year
and it is set to double again - at a predicted order of 40 million courses
of their antiviral treatment, at a price of around $30 per course (New
Scientist, October 2005).
Rosie
.
- References:
- The Coming Pandemic
- From: Tightwad
- Re: The Coming Pandemic
- From: Nicholas
- The Coming Pandemic
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