Re: The Coming Pandemic

sbffalo@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
> Jill. wrote:
>> sbffalo@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
>>> chris p wrote:
>>>> get a couple of cats.
>>>> "Tightwad" <Tightwad@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>>>> news:v%e5f.18838$1X5.4003@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>>> Itt seems the Bird Flue is growing expotentially and will arrive
>>>>> here shortly by migrating wild species.
>>>>> What are folks going to do to keep, presumably all wild birds, of
>>>>> any kind, out of contact with feed, fowl, or the ground they
>>>>> normally utilize?
>>>
>>> Hi, Chris!
>>>> From what I've gathered so far, all birds will need to be brought
>>> indoors and all contact with cats, other birds, mice, rats, dogs,
>>> etc. and their droppings, be eliminated.
>>
>> Why all of those?
>> None of them can carry the virus. Migratory waterfowl certainly do
>> The recommendations here [so far] will be to pen the animals behind
>> netting so that they cannot interact with the wild bird population
>> as Nuele and xiriux has described in the past in Holland and Germany
>> Jill
>
> Hi, Jill!
> I suspect for the same reason that we need to be disinfecting our
> boots. Birds do it wherever they happen to be and most animals are
> not too careful where they walk.
> I am surprised that netting is all that is recommended since this is a
> virus that we are concerned about. We all know how easy it is for us
> to catch a cold or the common flu. It just seems to hang in the air
> waiting for us. And what is to keep the wild birds from "dropping"
> something into the nets?

hey -- government responses to an agricultural situation are not meant to
make any sense are they ? :~))

This virus seems to need quite close contact which is why it causes such
very localised outbreaks as it passes.

> Jill, I'm not sure why you think we in the U.S. will be immune to this
> virus. Our birds co-mingle with birds from Russia and other northern
> areas during their northern migration. There are also birds that
> find themselves out of their normal range for various reasons
> (illness?) along the coasts. So it's reasonable to expect the virus
> to come here. What am I missing in this equation?

I must have missed something as I have skimmed through the reports - I
thought I understood that the birds travelling to parts of the US were not
from any affected areas. Russia is a BIG place and only a relatively small
area is affected. There certainly seems to be much less response about the
wild ducks in general. If you read the reports about wild duck hunting etc
etc all around the US there is hardly a murmur about watching the birds.
They are all the same as every other year -- excited reports of birds coming
in here and there and not a peep about bird flu. :~). Maybe its more a state
by state response and these are not being picked up by the papers.


> Our officials are
> quite somber about the possibilities. They are taking this more
> seriously than Y2K.

The human flu pandemic? -- yes of course they are -- when it happens it can
cause very significant medical and economic problems around the globe.
There are two almost separate issues here.
The virus in chickens.
The virus in humans.

A minute percentage of bird keepers might be at risk in the next 4-6 weeks
from a flock of migratory waterfowl which have become infected with H5N1.
These outbreaks will be very obvious in any other poultry kind and so be
able to be dealt with pretty effectively with a cull and temporary movement
restrictions. 6 miles is being spoken of here. Keeping birds out of contact
with the wild waterfowl is a good precaution in at risk places. Keeping
normally ranging birds confined when there is little or no risk is likely to
produce significant welfare issues.




Originally it was thought that infected birds
> would die before flying very far, but that is not now the case.

No - its never been the case with H5N1 - waterfowl are carriers -- only a
very small percentage of the population are affected as it comes in to a new
place. This is why I am so surprised that the wildfowlers are not being put
on higher alert in the US. They are over here. After that the ducks can
carry it to another place if they move

> As far as whether this particular virus will be the feared pandemic
> may not be the true question.

Its the one that has the World Health Organisation most perplexed at the
present. Its a REAL threat.
But the probabilities of an effective mutation that will transfer is not
going to be out in the wilds of Nebraksa or the village pond in a sleepy
English county. Its where you have
- lots of virus
- lots of chickens
- lots of infected ducks
- plenty of people working in very close proximity
- oh - and a fair number of pigs just to help the transition if it needs
it

> The thing with the present Asian Bird Flu is
> its present virulence and that the more birds it infects, the more
> people it comes in contact with and the more opportunity it has to
> mutate into a human influenza.

They all have to be in the same place -- look at the outbreaks during this
migration. There have been a few dozen people involved altogether. The
infected birds have been culled and buried within 72 hours. Only a few
thousand birds have been affected.
While this does not completely remove the chances I would say that in a
place where there are millions of infected birds in teh same space as
millions of chickens with thousands of people working amongst them is a far
higher probability of a successful mutation

There is risk in EVERYTHING we do - its assessing that risk that prevents
inappropriate actions


> It is quite possible that in doing so
> it loses its virulence, but just as possible that it won't.

Its VERY unlikely that it would go from this very highly pathogenic form
into a low pathogenic form
I am not sure if that has been known?


> Prudence
> dictates that we weigh the costs involved in ignoring both
> possibilities.

Absolutely

> I'm still not ready to give up eggs or Pilgrim geese (who are laying
> again!

Excellent

> I am also not ready to give up family members or friends and
> neighbors.

I would never suggest it -- and have said nothing that could be construed
that way


--
regards
Jill Bowis AI news reports: http://poultryreports.blogspot.com/

Pure bred utility chickens and ducks
Housing; Equipment, Books, Videos, Gifts
Herbaceous; Herb and Alpine nursery
Working Holidays in Scotland
http://www.kintaline.co.uk

.

Relevant Pages

  • Asia offers valuable bird flu lessons -experts
    ... Asia offers valuable bird flu lessons -experts ... H5N1 virus has showed up in Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, ... The virus began killing wild migratory birds in central China in April ... Copyright 2005 Reuters Limited. ...
    (soc.culture.cambodia)
  • Re: Mayonnaise (safety issues for whole egg home pasteuization)
    ... >> Does Exotic Newcastle's Disease occur in your country? ... This virus ... the USDA restricted the importation of birds in the early 1970's, ... potential sources for infection. ...
    (sci.agriculture.poultry)
  • Re: Mayonnaise (safety issues for whole egg home pasteuization)
    ... >> Does Exotic Newcastle's Disease occur in your country? ... This virus ... the USDA restricted the importation of birds in the early 1970's, ... potential sources for infection. ...
    (sci.med.dentistry)
  • Expect H5N1 virus in North America soon: UN-Updated
    ... The dangerous H5N1 form of the bird flu virus could reach North America ... Dr. David Nabarro said Wednesday that wild birds will likely carry the ... The virus has previously been detected in cats, tigers and leopards, ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: China: H5N1 infected poultry -- symptomless
    ... Its true that outside of the commercial poultry world and beyond the area ... I do not disagree with the idea that there is more to learn about this virus ... serious effect on the life and economies of the countries it has affected ... I do not see how 1% infected birds showing no symptoms is consistent ...
    (uk.business.agriculture)