The Population Explosion Is Over

From: Alfred Einstead (whopkins_at_csd.uwm.edu)
Date: 09/06/04


Date: 6 Sep 2004 05:20:44 -0700


>From July 12, 2004; sci.physics

Subject Re: Register, GET OUT & VOTE Republican!

>From Uncle Al (UncleAl0@hate.spam.net):
>Europe is in the same sinking economic boat, with one truly
>beautiful fillip. Europe has no massively imported cadre of
>docile reproductive warriors to fire the Welfare furnaces with
>their young working flesh. Islamic states to the south with
>their 8% annual population increases need only march in, sweep
>the walkers and wheel chairs aside, and start building mosques.

The population explosion is over and done with.

* No nation left on Earth as of 1999 has a growth rate over 5%
* As of 2002, hardly any is over 3% (just 13), or much beyond 2%,
  whereas the world, itself, was at 2% just a few years ago.
* The population curve closely fits an S curve through the time
  of the Industrial Revolution from the 1800's on, that tops
  off under 9 billion.
* It is almost exactly symmetric about 1989, the inflection point,
  for 1974-2004: within 5 million.
* The curve is concave down, the worldwide growth is under 1%
  and is coming to a screeching halt -- everywhere.

[This is 1/2 of the actual reason colleges worldwide are being
swamped by women, even Saudi Arabia; 56.9% female 1999 -> 58.7% 2002,
UNESCO (the Gulf States are in the 60%-75% female range). They're
deferring childbirth and are going to college, instead. The other
1/2 of the reason is in
        http://www.csd.uwm.edu/~whopkins/FourthWave/Part8.htm
and Parts 9 and 10, afterwards]

We'll reply to this in 3 parts
(1) The inflection point is past and the curve tops off at 9 billion
    or less
(2) The close fit of the S curve to historical data
(3) The actual growth rates in the Middle East and worldwide, as of
    1999 and 2002

===================

(1) The inflection point is past and the curve tops off at 9 billion
    or less
We're already past the inflection point.

http://www.csd.uwm.edu/~whopkins/FourthWave/images/Inflection.gif

The curve is almost EXACTLY symmetric around 1989.

               P(1989 + t) + P(1989 - t) = 10.39 billion
               where P(t) = world population:

(the best-fitting S curve with 1989 as an inflection point,
see below, tops off 9.229 billion; the best fitting S curve overall
at 8.742 billion).

Actual figures, millions (from mid-year estimates by US Census Bureau):
1974+2004: 4014 + 6378 = 10392
1975+2003: 4087 + 6305 = 10392
1976+2002: 4159 + 6233 = 10392
1977+2001: 4231 + 6160 = 10391
1978+2000: 4304 + 6085 = 10389
1979+1999: 4379 + 6010 = 10389
1980+1998: 4454 + 5933 = 10387
1981+1997: 4530 + 5855 = 10385
1982+1996: 4610 + 5776 = 10386
1983+1995: 4691 + 5696 = 10387
1984+1994: 4771 + 5615 = 10386
1985+1993: 4853 + 5535 = 10388
1986+1992: 4937 + 5453 = 10390
1987+1991: 5023 + 5369 = 10392
1988+1990: 5110 + 5285 = 10395
1989+1989: 5197 + 5197 = 10394

The best-fitting S curve, with 1989 as the inflection, fitting to
1950-2004, is given by:
* linear fit against: population (1 - a exp(kt)) = b + c exp(kt)
* k = 0.040785, 99.968% goodness of fit, 55 data points
* Transition range of population in millions: 1160 -> 5194 -> 9229
* Inflection time 1989
* Maximum rate: 82.273 million/year

showing that the S curve is NOT a transition spanning the entire
range of the population curve all the way into the past, but just
that period of time starting with the Industrial Revolution in
the early to mid 1800's.

Overall, ignoring the constraint, the best-fitting S curve is as follows:
* linear fit against: population (1 - a exp(kt)) = b + c exp(kt)
* k = 0.045136, 99.976% goodness of fit, 55 data points
* Transition range of population in millions: 1401 -> 5071 -> 8742
* Inflection time: 1987.45
* Maximum rate: 82.835 million/year

======================

(2) The close fit of the S curve to historical data

The projections by the US Census Bureau fail to note this regularity
               P(1989 + t) + P(1989 - t) = 10.39 billion
and so, naturally, go astray once you get past 2004, as seen below.

1973,2005 3939 + 6450 = 10389
1972,2006 3862 + 6523 = 10385
1971,2007 3786 + 6595 = 10381
1970,2008 3708 + 6668 = 10376
1969,2009 3633 + 6740 = 10373
1968,2010 3558 + 6812 = 10370
1967,2011 3486 + 6884 = 10370
1966,2012 3416 + 6957 = 10373
1965,2013 3346 + 7029 = 10375
1964,2014 3277 + 7100 = 10377
1963,2015 3206 + 7171 = 10377
1962,2016 3137 + 7240 = 10377
1961,2017 3080 + 7309 = 10389
1960,2018 3040 + 7377 = 10407
1959,2019 2998 + 7445 = 10443
1958,2020 2945 + 7511 = 10456
1957,2021 2889 + 7576 = 10465
1956,2022 2833 + 7640 = 10473
1955,2023 2780 + 7702 = 10482
1954,2024 2729 + 7764 = 10493
1953,2025 2681 + 7824 = 10504
1952,2026 2635 + 7884 = 10519
1951,2027 2593 + 7942 = 10535
1950,2028 2555 + 8000 = 10555

========

For the above-mentioned model, Sigma, the following comparisons are
made against standard historical references, and against the USA and
UN references.

It starts to pick up around the beginning of the Industrial
Revolution in the 19th century and stays close afterwards.

Year Sigma Bir Dur Hau FoF Tho UN73 RaMc
1800 1402 954 900 900 813-1125
1850 1415 1241 1265 1200 1200 1128-1402 1175
1900 1540 1633 1650-1710 1656 1625 1600 1550-1762 1600
1950 2544 2527 2516 2500 2400 2486

Year Sigma UN99
1800 1402 980
1850 1415 1260
1900 1540 1650
1910 1617 1750
1920 1734 1860
1930 1912 2070
1940 2172 2300
1950 2544 2520
1960 3050 3020
1970 3696 3700
1980 4460 4440
1990 5282 5270
1999 6007 5980
2000 6084 6060

Year Sigma USA
1950 2544 2555
1951 2588 2593
1952 2634 2635
1953 2681 2681
1954 2729 2729
1955 2779 2780
1956 2830 2833
1957 2883 2889
1958 2937 2945
1959 2993 2998
1960 3050 3040
1961 3108 3080
1962 3168 3137
1963 3229 3206
1964 3292 3277
1965 3356 3346
1966 3421 3416
1967 3488 3486
1968 3556 3558
1969 3626 3633
1970 3696 3708
1971 3768 3786
1972 3841 3862
1973 3915 3939
1974 3990 4014
1975 4066 4087
1976 4143 4159
1977 4221 4231
1978 4300 4304
1979 4380 4379
1980 4460 4454
1981 4541 4530
1982 4622 4610
1983 4704 4691
1984 4786 4771
1985 4869 4853
1986 4951 4937
1987 5034 5023
1988 5117 5110
1989 5200 5197
1990 5282 5285
1991 5365 5369
1992 5447 5453
1993 5529 5535
1994 5610 5615
1995 5691 5696
1996 5771 5776
1997 5850 5855
1998 5929 5933
1999 6007 6010
2000 6084 6085
2001 6160 6160
2002 6235 6233
2003 6309 6305
2004 6382 6378

Projections:
     Sigma UN99
2010 6793 6790
2020 7369 7500
2030 7804 8110
2040 8115 8580
2050 8330 8910
2100 8696 9460
2150 8737 9750
2200 8741 10000

     Sigma USA
2005 6454 6450
2006 6524 6523
2007 6593 6595
2008 6661 6668
2009 6728 6740
2010 6793 6812
2011 6857 6884
2012 6920 6957
2013 6981 7029
2014 7040 7100
2015 7099 7171
2016 7156 7240
2017 7211 7309
2018 7265 7377
2019 7317 7445
2020 7369 7511
2021 7418 7576
2022 7466 7640
2023 7513 7702
2024 7559 7764
2025 7603 7824
2026 7646 7884
2027 7687 7942
2028 7727 8000
2029 7766 8056
2030 7804 8112
2031 7840 8167
2032 7875 8221
2033 7909 8274
2034 7942 8326
2035 7973 8378
2036 8004 8428
2037 8033 8478
2038 8062 8527
2039 8089 8576
2040 8115 8623
2041 8141 8670
2042 8165 8716
2043 8189 8761
2044 8211 8805
2045 8233 8848
2046 8254 8891
2047 8274 8932
2048 8293 8972
2049 8312 9012
2050 8330 9050

REFERENCES:
U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division,
International Programs Center
Last Revised: 30 Apr 2004 14:08:41 EDT
http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/worldpop.html

SOURCES:
Bir: Biraben, Jean-Noel, 1980, An Essay Concerning Mankind's
     Evolution, Population, Selected Papers, December, table 2.
Dur: Durand, John D., 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population:
     An Evaluation," University of Pennsylvania, Population Center,
     Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10, table 2.
Hau: Haub, Carl, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?"
     Population Today, February, p. 5.
FoF: McEvedy, Colin and Richard Jones, 1978,
     "Atlas of World Population History,"
     Facts on File, New York, pp. 342-351.
     1993: Kremer
Tho: Thomlinson, Ralph, 1975, "Demographic Problems, Controversy
     Over Population Control," Second Edition, Table 1.
UN73: United Nations (UN), 1973, The Determinants and Consequences
      of Population Trends, Population Studies, No. 50., p.10.
UN99: United Nations, 1999, The World at Six Billion, Table 1,
      "World Population From" Year 0 to Stabilization, p. 5,
USA: U.S. Bureau of the Census (USBC), 2004,
     "Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050",
RaMc: Rand McNally & Co.

======================

(3) The actual growth rates in the Middle East and worldwide, as of
    1999 and 2002

Population growth rate (in percents):
>From the 1999 CIA World Factbook and 2002 World Almanac. The
2002 figures are cited as "Natural Increase".

1999 for Serbia & Montenegro averaged at 0.03:
0.02 Serbia, 0.07 Montenegro

 2002 1999
 3.88 3.86 Marshall Islands
 3.52 3.14 Sao Tome and Principe
 3.39 3.45 Oman
 3.38 3.34 Yemen
 3.29 2.65 Chad
 3.14 3.39 Saudi Arabia
 3.09 2.96 Congo, Democratic Republic of the
 3.05 3.88 Eritrea
 3.02 4.92 Liberia
 3.02 3.11 Comoros
 3.02 2.80 Madagascar
 3.01 3.37 Maldives
 3.01 3.01 Mali
 2.98 3.18 Solomon Islands
 2.97 3.30 Benin
 2.96 2.83 Uganda
 2.93 2.99 Mauritania
 2.91 3.32 Senegal
 2.89 4.13 Somalia
 2.88 3.35 Gambia, The
 2.84 3.19 Iraq
 2.80 2.95 Niger
 2.79 2.71 Sudan
 2.78 2.68 Guatemala
 2.77 2.70 Burkina Faso
 2.70 2.42 Belize
 2.68 2.16 Ethiopia
 2.67 2.14 Tanzania
 2.64 2.24 Honduras
 2.61 2.65 Paraguay
 2.60 1.51 Djibouti
 2.59 4.34 Sierra Leone
 2.58 3.51 Togo
 2.58 2.92 Nigeria
 2.54 3.15 Syria
 2.48 2.74 Laos
 2.47 1.43 Tajikistan
 2.46 2.55 Equatorial Guinea
 2.43 2.26 Papua New Guinea
 2.42 2.40 Libya
 2.41 2.79 Cameroon
 2.40 2.31 Guinea-Bissau
 2.38 3.54 Burundi
 2.37 3.95 Afghanistan
 2.37 2.35 Cote d'Ivoire
 2.32 2.51 Nepal
 2.31 1.78 Kiribati
 2.28 3.05 Jordan
 2.28 2.84 Nicaragua
 2.25 2.49 Cambodia
 2.25 1.53 El Salvador
 2.23 0.82 Guinea
 2.20 2.18 Pakistan
 2.20 2.16 Congo, Republic of the
 2.19 2.84 Angola
 2.17 2.25 Bhutan
 2.15 1.44 Cape Verde
 2.13 2.04 Philippines
 2.11 3.30 Micronesia
 2.06 1.78 Ecuador
 2.01 1.62 Dominican Republic
 2.00 0.00 Nauru
 1.96 2.08 Malaysia
 1.96 1.58 Turkmenistan
 1.95 3.88 Kuwait
 1.95 2.12 Zambia
 1.91 1.96 Bolivia
 1.87 2.05 Ghana
 1.85 2.04 Central African Republic
 1.83 1.91 Swaziland
 1.82 1.84 Morocco
 1.81 1.93 Peru
 1.81 1.32 Uzbekistan
 1.78 1.73 Mexico
 1.76 1.28 Fiji
 1.75 2.10 Algeria
 1.73 0.80 Tonga
 1.72 1.82 Egypt
 1.71 0.68 Kyrgyzstan
 1.70 2.38 Brunei
 1.70 2.02 Vanuatu
 1.67 1.85 Colombia
 1.67 1.59 Bangladesh
 1.67 1.53 Haiti
 1.64 1.09 Saint Lucia
 1.62 2.00 Bahrain
 1.60 1.89 Costa Rica
 1.60 1.46 Indonesia
 1.57 1.71 Venezuela
 1.55 1.80 Lesotho
 1.55 1.68 India
 1.53 0.87 Grenada
 1.50 1.57 Malawi
 1.50 1.37 Vietnam
 1.49 0.71 Suriname
 1.47 1.45 Mongolia
 1.43 1.78 United Arab Emirates
 1.42 1.59 Kenya
 1.41 1.53 Panama
 1.40 1.34 Tuvalu
 1.38 1.61 Lebanon
 1.38 1.57 Namibia
 1.36 0.36 Antigua and Barbuda
 1.30 2.54 Mozambique
 1.29 1.81 Israel
 1.28 2.43 Rwanda
 1.26 0.64 Jamaica
 1.25 1.05 Albania
 1.24 1.94 Palau
 1.24 1.57 Turkey
 1.22 1.45 Korea, North
 1.21 1.39 Tunisia
 1.20 1.36 Bahamas, The
 1.18 0.57 Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
 1.17 3.62 Qatar
 1.17 1.07 Iran
 1.17 0.03 Serbia & Montenegro
 1.13 1.23 Chile
 1.08 1.29 Argentina
 1.06 -1.41 Dominica
 1.02 1.48 Gabon
 1.02 1.10 Sri Lanka
 0.97 1.18 Mauritius
 0.96 1.34 Saint Kitts and Nevis
 0.93 2.30 Samoa
 0.92 0.77 China
 0.91 -0.32 Guyana
 0.91 1.16 Brazil
 0.91 0.93 Thailand
 0.89 1.00 Korea, South
 0.89 0.63 Azerbaijan
 0.86 1.15 Singapore
 0.83 0.93 Taiwan
 0.83 0.73 Uruguay
 0.78 1.61 Myanmar
 0.77 0.57 Iceland
 0.67 -0.09 Kazakhstan
 0.67 0.99 New Zealand
 0.65 0.38 Ireland
 0.58 0.64 Macedonia
 0.57 0.90 Australia
 0.55 0.85 United States
 0.54 0.67 Cyprus
 0.50 0.49 Malta
 0.50 0.40 Cuba
 0.49 -1.35 Trinidad and Tobago
 0.49 3.20 Bosnia and Herzegovina
 0.49 2.24 Andorra
 0.49 0.04 Barbados
 0.48 1.08 Liechtenstein
 0.47 1.05 Botswana
 0.44 1.32 South Africa
 0.37 1.06 Canada
 0.34 0.88 Luxembourg
 0.32 0.47 Netherlands
 0.31 0.64 San Marino
 0.30 0.27 France
 0.28 0.40 Norway
 0.17 -0.38 Armenia
 0.17 0.20 Japan
 0.15 1.02 Zimbabwe
 0.14 0.20 Switzerland
 0.14 0.10 Croatia
 0.13 -0.13 Portugal
 0.12 0.24 United Kingdom
 0.11 0.65 Seychelles
 0.11 0.38 Denmark
 0.09 0.15 Finland
 0.08 0.10 Moldova
 0.08 0.04 Slovakia
 0.06 0.06 Belgium
 0.02 0.05 Poland
 0.01 0.41 Greece
 0.01 0.10 Spain
-0.01 0.09 Austria
-0.01 -0.08 Italy
-0.07 -0.04 Slovenia
-0.07 0.29 Sweden
-0.13 0.01 Germany
-0.15 -0.23 Romania
-0.17 -0.01 Czech Republic
-0.29 -0.40 Lithuania
-0.33 0.31 Monaco
-0.34 -0.74 Georgia
-0.39 -0.20 Hungary
-0.44 -0.09 Belarus
-0.45 -0.33 Russia
-0.48 -0.82 Estonia
-0.65 -0.52 Bulgaria
-0.68 -1.25 Latvia
-0.71 -0.62 Ukraine



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