Aurora Borialis, Event 1363 and Position of the Magnetic Pole.

From: Philip Deitiker (Donevenask_at_worlnet.att.net)
Date: 08/20/04 

Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 02:27:16 GMT

  The basic arguments concerning polar magnentic centers cannot
be traced back effectively to times before compasses were used
in the north atlantic and really tenuous before the first pole
measurement in 1831. There are however reports all over the
northern hemisphere of aurora borealis, which is a function of
the axial pole of earths internal magnetic core. The peak
frequency is a donut shaped nodal distribution about 1800 miles
from that axis that runs through the dipole. This dipole axis is
now believed to result from the fact that the earths core is
spinning ever so slowly, faster than the rotating earth as the
earths spin deteriorates. Because this spinning core does not
align through the center of the earth the maximum declination
flux lines do not correspond to the position of the dipole axis.
The magnetively active southern hemisphere sets the stage for
the deviation and the dipole axis is stable while the
declination maximum is more active in the northern regions. This
movement at present north is holding close to the same distance
from the dipole, suggesting that the dipole moves slower and
more steadily, while the declination maxima moves more rapidly,
as it is currently doing. The current distance between the 2 is
about 500 miles, and the internal structure of the core probably
limits the distance to 1000 miles. The aurora borealis events in
societies that record astrological events are indicators of
proximity of dipole axis, and this can be linked by a range of
locations for the inclination axis. The chinese and koreans
recorded these events, and during the period between 1100 and
1500 these societies recorded 3 major aurora 1 of which at 1363
was not recorded in the western eurasia. In addition from 14th
century the koreans recorded colored [presumbably] night sky and
large lightning and show, with the exception of 15th century low
sunspot activity a climb in these events relative to other
events they recorded, which peaked around the 17th century and
decline in the 19th century which coincides with a predicted
movement east of the inclination pole, probably following the
movement of the dipole. The latitude of these observations was
36`N which is substantially lower than the latitudes of europe,
Other events were recorded in europe and asia approximately the
same time however these events were seen at latitudes of 45`N or
higher is europe and 35'N in asia, predicting that the dipole
was closer to europe. Where europe may have been having a low in
northern lights in places like Ireland, Scotland and Northern
Norway, but reports of these lights continued from similar
latitudes in Greenland.
This data seems to suggest that the dipole was at one time
relatively far south, possibly as low as 70` and further west
possibly eastern alaska than its current position in Thule. This
would have limited the declination maximum to within 1000 miles.

Methodological Premises.
The basic argument here is that the mapping of greenland in the
Ruysch and later Mercator map was not based on longitudinal
measurements, compass measurements or good latitude measures.
This argument counters the believe of Inger and Eric that
certain explorers had made exhaustive surveys of Greenland or
had gathered information of previous exhaustive surveys, and
that the coastal topography of greenland was that of a partial
scan of the coastline, without knowing the latitude or
inclination of those scans.

Assumptions
1. That the dipole axis (That dipole is at 78°30' North, 69°
West, Thule) is going to be relatively close to the magnetic
'inclination' north pole (78°18' North, 104W)and that dipole is
governed by the true approximate dipole end depth and the
diagonal inclination of the pole. The depth is not subject to
change but the south magnetic pole shifts the dipole however the
distance will increase as the pole deviates from an axis the
goes from any point on the earth to any point on the oposite
side of the earth degree of offset will cause the polar to shift
~proportional to the offset. If one where to move that dipole
end (north in a direction such that it did represent a true
bipolar axis (in any direction) the dipole axis and the
inclination centerpoint would exactly overlay.
Based on this we can predict that to correct this from the north
one would move the projection of the dipole end at thule away
from the inclination dip maximum until these poles then aligned.
One can visualize this be showing a crosssection of the earth in
which the earth is oriented in the direction of the magnetic
dipole and see that the as one moves the effective dipole end
north and south this maximum inclination point moves closer to
the true dipole axis, even when it is offset. As one moves it
toward the center of the crossection the inclination maximum
moves closer to that point.

2. The basic assumption is that there is a limit to the distance
that the internal dipole can offset from the closest parallel
that goes through the center of the earth. This limit is set by
the layered properties of the earths core. In addition there is
a limit at how far the effective dipole can axially favor one
end of the earth. These two assumptions place a finite limit on
how far the dipole axis can deviate from the The current offset
in miles can be calculated as the ~78.20'N creates a
longitudinal circle of 2*pi*radius (where radius = 840 miles)
The difference between the 2 is 35' and a radian = 57.29`.
Therefore the distance = 840 * 35/57.29 = 513 miles. We can then
propose that this difference between the 2 will never be greater
than 1000 miles based on the internal properties of the earth.
If one looks at the current motion of the inclination maximum
'North magnetic pole' it is moving on a course roughly
equidistance with the respect to the more static dipole axis.
Actually the south magentic pole is closer to the surface and is
farthur from the southern rotational axis suggesting that the
deviancy from true north is more a function of the southern end
of the dipole relative the northern end, and that the northern
end is projecting from across the axis to the opposite side of
the earth. Therefore magentic inclination variations at the
south pole relative to the north pole can help to determine the
motion of the dipole.
In 1995 the southern pole was 64°44'S, 138°38'E. ~26 degrees or
1716 miles from rotational center. IOW the dipole appears to be
tilted against the rotational axis of the earth. Not only this
but its not a true dipole but a multiplicity of dipoles which
add and subtract vectors to generate the overall dipole.

http://www.users.bigpond.com/ernestmcfarlane/geomagnetism.html

With the magnetic Jerks seen in the north possibly attributable
to 'near surface' magetic feild changes in the south indicating
2+ magnetic generating poles in the south, with inclination
strongly determined by the more dominant pole. [Questionable]
But none the less the southern pole appears to be on the move
and this is affecting the northern pole. This with the claims
that earths iron core is turning faster and the idea that the
convection of magnetic particles off the core generations
magnetism may explaint magnetic feild movements in the North.
Moreso than dipole movement in the north.
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/space/cgm/mgm_gif/S96173M0_LON.GIF.
One can look at the magnetic distortions in the poles in the
south and see the difference in ellipticity and eccentricity
that developes around the southern dipole, also how much more
the south magnetic dipole inclinations are changing over the
course of the year. Therefore the conclusion that can be drawn
from this is that southern activity represents the largest
activity currently effecting the position of the northern dipole
and the offset and angle of the northern end of the dipole. If
one looks at these maps one sees that actually the southern
dipole is inside (relative to the axial pole) the southern
maximum inclinaton as it expected, confirming the prediction.
This means that the deviation in the north from the
intraposition of the magnetic dipole axis relative to the
inclination pole has to do with the northern end of the dipole
pointing 'across/close' the earths axis and the resulting
inclinations lines falling coincidently inside, therefore at
current the northern dipole is behaving as if it wants to be
allign with the rotation of earth and the southern dipole
playing the excentric role. One can also show this by
demontrating that while the northern dipole is hardly moving the
the inclination pole is moving rapidly and this should be the
results of small movements of the southern dipole and modest
counter movements of the northern dipole. The prediction is that
as the inclination maximum moves away from the dipole, the
dipole axis pentration point will begin to follow it. However so
far that distance has remaine fairly constant, and probably has
been fairly constant over the historic period. The southern pole
acts as a rudder stearing the ship, the inclination angle being
where the ship appears to be point but the dipole axis is where
the ship is actually going and wave activity causes the bow of
the ship to toss and turn.
 
3. The donut shaped ring surrounding the dipole produces the
maximum aurora borialis over a distance from the dipole, with
the distance and amplitude increasing in response to solar wind
activity. This ring is about 1800 miles from the dipole and the
inclination dipole at current as stated 500 miles but no more
than 1000 miles. Therefore we can predict that at any given time
the maximal circle of the borealis is no less than 800 miles (12
`) from the inclination maximum, the magnetic north pole.
Alternatively we can predict that if the Aurora is not seen with
any frequency in a point or any point south to the equator, we
can assume that point is at least 800 miles from the inclination
north pole. As a matter of fact over 5 or 10 year time frames.
One can reasonable expect to see aurora within 45` of the dipole
at some frequency, this constitutes
about 3000 miles from the dipole. And the more spectacular
events will appear at 3000 miles from the dipole but at a lessor
frequency. Therefore if you are outside the range of the aurora
to see these lessor events and only see extremely rare events,
the expectation is tht you are at least 2000 miles from the
magnetic north pole. And contrararily if another group of people
are historically recording infrequent but yearly Aurora then
they are no more that 3500 miles form the magnetic north pole.
Basically europeans presently and during most of the recorded
past see Aurora from the NW. Not absolutely correct, but one is
more likely to see aurora looking northwest based on reports
from Ireland, Hebrides, Scotland, Norway and Finland, the places
were these events are more freqeuntly both currently and
historically.
  For example, also if the aurora borealis subsides in the
western eurasia but increases in asia, we can predict that the
dipole was once farther west and now moving east with its
movement being far more consistent. We can then predict based on
its east asian occurance and western asia place the dipole
roughly close to alaska for example in the 13th century and the
dipole no farther east than central canada.

Results.
In sci.archaeology, Eric Stevens created a message ID
news:j6f7i0dulstsssk3r1gvv3m0gu7cnlahih@4ax.com:

> On Wed, 18 Aug 2004 13:44:07 GMT, Philip Deitiker
> <Donevenask@worlnet.att.net> wrote:

> While it might do that now, it did not in the past. See for
example
> http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/magdec/stevin.pdf (derived from
> http://www.phys.uu.nl/~vgent/magdec/magdec.htm ) which will
show you
> that the declination was about 15 degrees west in 1600. Heaven
knows
> what it was at the time of which you are writing.

Declination is the dip, it does not have west or east
orientation. The declination = 0 isoquant is a circle which runs
around the earth close to the equator(see map link I have
provided 2wice). You still fail to understand the concept.
Likewise because you don't understand this you also don't
understand why crude compasses have problems close to the poles
and in particular any compass close to the magnetic pole or the
pole axis.
  On average the declination of any point close to the equator
will be closer to 0 than any point far from the equator if the
basic assumption is that the magnetic pole axis are always
relatively close to the rotational axis. During the last 3000
years there is evidence that the south magnetic pole rose to
30' and this caused a breif pole jerk, other than that there is
really no evidence that it has dropped below 75' which means
that the declination lines close to the equator have always been
between 0 and 15' Tolerable with respect to travelers between S.
India and Indonesia and Tolerable between Equitorial african and
S. India.
  How you can know for fact that the magetic pole has not
dropped even into Russia is you can scour the internet for
reports of aurora borrealis below 40' between 800AD and 1200AD.
And BTW, with regard to the self defeating argument, I should
also point out that if the pole had drifted to 15'W 75'N it
would have been so close to Norway, Iceland and Greenland as to
make any use of the compass excessively difficult.

http://www.pfrr.alaska.edu/~pfrr/AURORA/INDEX.HTM
See FAQ.

The best place to see the aurora is the circle which is about
75' inclination relative to magnetic north whereas frequent
viewings are at 60' inclination. Therefore if the pole had
dropped to 15' at any longitude east you would have historic
reports of aurora you could see the aurora with regularity at
45'N in the asia subcontinent. You would, in effect be seeing
aurora as frequently in france as you currently see them in
southeastern alaska and southern canada.

http://virtual.finland.fi/finfo/english/auroraborealis/aurora4.h
tml

There is no special occurance of aurora in western eurasia
except in the time of the period 500 B.C. These events were were
seen with regularity up intil the mid 13 century when they began
to dissappear. At least in europe.

http://www.albany.edu/faculty/rgk/atm101/aurora.htm
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF4/448.html

http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/space/SpaceRepublish_
330954.htm
 The chinese began noting auroras which other peoples did not
suggesting that the pole had made a westward migration and was
probably close to alaska during that period and has wobbled back
close to it current position. In the link above the british note
the sun spot activity and the chinese see the aurora (1192
event), this Aurora was recorded in Anchin, Flanders, Belgium,
51`N and in China at 35`N (1000 miles south of the same latitude
in belgium). These events were seen with some frequency in the
11th century in china. Both chinese, korean and Japanese appear
to have kept records of this phenomena, the japanese records are
apparently reported in

http://216.239.57.104/search?
q=cache:AdJ1EgkFXcwJ:www.pparc.ac.uk/frontiers/pdf/12Update.pdf+
Aurora+Borealis+China+Ancient+Record&hl=en
http://eserver.org/history/aurora-of-1192.txt

The Norwegians in Bergen were apparently puzzled by the
increased reports from greenland of the Aurora in greenland.
http://www.vikinganswerlady.com/njordrljos.htm
Which means that greenlanders were seeing these lights in 1270
but scandinavians were not seeing them with the same frequency,
predicted based on the current position of the North pole or a
pole further south or west than its current position.

Based on the constant records of the chinese, the slower reports
from eastern russia and scandinavia, and the consistent report
of aurora in native american legend. One can conclude that after
1250 the dipole had moved a greater distance from the typical
viewing areas. Note the linka above from 1200 to 1500 there
were few reported Aurora in europe.

However. Apparently the Aurora activity was not as diminished in
asia.

http://www.pparc.ac.uk/frontiers/archive/update.asp?id=12U6
&style=update
Abstract Volume 18 Issue 1 (2000) pp 1-10

Simultaneous auroral observations described in the historical
records of China, Japan and Korea from ancient times to AD 1700
D. M. Willis, F. R. Stephenson

"
Received: 21 May 1999 / Revised: 20 August 1999 / Accepted: 26
August 1999

Abstract. Early auroral observations recorded in various
oriental histories are examined in order to search for examples
of strictly simultaneous and indisputably independent
observations of the aurora borealis from spatially separated
sites in East Asia. In the period up to ad 1700, only five
examples have been found of two or more oriental auroral
observations from separate sites on the same night. These
occurred during the nights of ad 1101 January 31, ad 1138
October 6, ad 1363 July 30, ad 1582 March 8 and ad 1653 March 2.
The independent historical evidence describing observations of
mid-latitude auroral displays at more than one site in East Asia
on the same night provides virtually incontrovertible proof that
auroral displays actually occurred on these five special
occasions. This conclusion is corroborated by the good level of
agreement between the detailed auroral descriptions recorded in
the different oriental histories, which furnish essentially
compatible information on both the colour (or colours) of each
auroral display and its approximate position in the sky. In
addition, the occurrence of auroral displays in Europe within
two days of auroral displays in East Asia, on two (possibly
three) out of these five special occasions, suggests that a
substantial number of the mid-latitude auroral displays recorded
in the oriental histories are associated with intense
geomagnetic storms.
"

Apparently the Aurora was acknowledged in Asia but not europe,
this was 2 of five major events in the centuries recorded in
asia but not in europe.

http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/korea/

Here are the percentage of Northern Lights (colored night skies)
observations relative to other Natural Phenomena Recorded in the
Chosôn Dynasty

        Period 1 1392-1450 0.023
        Period 2 1451-1500 0.006
        Period 3 1501-1550 0.058
        Period 4 1551-1600 0.073
        Period 5 1601-1650 0.068
        Period 6 1651-1700 0.017
        Period 7 1701-1750 0.023
        Period 8 1751-1800 0.003
        Period 9 1801-1863 0.001
(the last corresponds with the position close to the boothian
peninusula and the period 6 and 7 correspond with positions to
the west of the 1950 positions, strictly interpreted the pre
1600 positions had to be even further west than those, except
the 1451 -1500 positions, a period of low solar activity)

http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/korea/fig02.jpg
2) colored vapors in the sky (white vapors, black vapors, red
vapors, "fire" vapors, bright lightning flashes);

Conclusions.
  The best conclusions one could draw is that in the 14th
century the magnetic dipole was slightly west and south of its
current position, it move further west to the 17th century but
during the 18th and 19th century began its return to the 20th
century posiltion. The inclination predictions Daryl gave are
consistent with this, and the inclination maxima probably lagged
the dipole axis movement as it moved to the east. It is unclear
the position before 1200 was to the west of greenland or to the
east of greenland, or even close to the north pole.

As a result we can also conclude that the declination lines in
the Indian ocean have been fairly constant over the last 1000
years as these sites are distal to the dipole and the
inclination maximum for most of the period. There is no really
strong evidence that the dipole dipped far into russia, by
chinese or european reports, even both are more common at
different at times and points in the past.

 That the position of the north pole was generally south of its
current position and not at any time during the period between
1200 and 1500 close to the Ural mountains of russia.
Should also note that the people who routinely see the lights
are in siberia, infrequently Japan, China and Korea, and
Greenland, the Laps of Norway.

We can extend our logic and one can come to the following
conclusion the Japanese and Chinese recorded events at lower
latititudes 35 to 40' that were not all observed in europe with
latitudes of 45 to 55 degrees. This rougly means that the
~chinese had to be 3500 miles from the magnetic north pole at
the time. ~37` + 53` means that at that time the north magnetic
pole could not have been farther than 90 IOW the north pole and
more likely it was 500 miles closer to china realitve to Norway.
The presence of these lights in greenland at increase frequency
according to differential reports between greenland and norway
suggest they could not have been more than 3000 miles from the
north magnetic pole or that the pole could not have been more
than 76' on the opposing side of the earth. More than likely it
would be about 7' on the other side. The lack of strong reports
from russia for the same period would suggest these lights were
closer to greenland than the ural mountains of russia. In fact
there is an absense of reports in central asia at the same
latitudes as korea and china, suggesting that central asia and
europe would be the furthest from these lights during the 12th,
13th and 14th centuries. This would have placed the most likely
local of the dipole about 75`N and 120`W for that period. With
the most likely position of the inclination maximum being in a
circle between 75'N 155`W, 83`N 120`W, 75`N 85`W (eastern most
point in eastern canada), and 68'N and 85`W. None of these
would place the position of greenland by compass survey in its
twice mapped position. The least biased position by compass
would be the first 2 with the second very close to the current
bias. The last two would have heavily biased the mapping and the
third would have made compass navigation in the north atlantic
difficult in the labrador region impossible. There is no
explanation favorable to the occurance of aurora borealis that
places the maximum inclination of the north pole proximal to the
eastern coast of greenland at any time during the period of
debate. contrarily the evidence supports a position to the west
of greenland and possible position within alaska for a breif
period of time or intermittently. 

-- 
Philip
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