Re: New subjectline: Valid and invalid arguments; former: Cocaine in ancient Egypt?

From: Doug Weller (dweller_at_ramtops.removethisdemon.co.uk)
Date: 01/20/05 

Date: Thu, 20 Jan 2005 22:46:23 +0000

On Thu, 20 Jan 2005 18:17:10 GMT, in sci.archaeology, Alan Crozier wrote:

>"Doug Weller" <dweller@ramtops.removethisdemon.co.uk> wrote in message
>news:dgovu0tevvdikh1rcm4pgqv3s8frji7hnc@4ax.com...
>> On Thu, 20 Jan 2005 15:01:57 GMT, in sci.archaeology, Alan Crozier wrote:
>>
>> >
>> >Martyn is blatantly ignoring the old dictum "Absence of evidence is not
>> >evidence of absence" and drawing a fallacious conclusion from an
>argumentum
>> >ex silentio. Consider how little has actually survived from ancient
>Egypt, a
>> >tiny fraction of all the evidence that may once have existed. It is wrong
>to
>> >infer from this absence of evidence that, during the several millennia of
>> >Egyptian history, there was no contact at all with other parts of the
>world,
>> >or indeed the universe.
>>
>> I've never understood that 'old dictum'.
>> Absence of evidence is in fact evidence of absence. Not proof, but
>> evidence of the probability of absence. And how likely that is depends
>> upon the context.
>>
>> For instance, if we find a certain type of fossil in a certain type of
>> context on continent A, but we don't find it in a similar context on
>> continent B, that suggests pretty strongly that the lack of fossils means
>> a lack of the animal involved.
>
>Yes, Doug. In fact, the dictum should really be "Absence of evidence may not
>be _proof_ of absence, but it can be _evidence_." It only works in a
>language that makes a clear dictinction between evidence and proof.
>
Indeed.

>Actually, I first found that qualification of the old dictum in something
>written by David Rohl. (Yes, I admit it, I have read Rohl with an open mind,
>but I didn't
>inhale.)

Yes, he wrote ""The phrase ‘absence of evidence is not evidence of
absence’ is just another way of saying ‘anything goes’ in our
interpretation of the available archaeological evidence"

>I even made the qualified version of the dictum the basis for a conference
>paper about the meaning of the name Vinland. You've all read Vinland
>Revisited, I trust. It's on page 332.
>
Nope, I haven't. Someday.

Doug 

-- 
Doug Weller -- exorcise the demon to reply
Doug & Helen's Dogs http://www.dougandhelen.com
A Director and Moderator of The Hall of Ma'at http://www.hallofmaat.com
Doug's Archaeology Site: http://www.ramtops.co.uk
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