Re: Meaning of Zero and All, Application to archaeology

From: Eric Stevens (eric.stevens_at_sum.co.nz)
Date: 01/23/05

  • Next message: Eric Stevens: "Re: Meaning of Zero and All, Application to archaeology" 
    Date: Sun, 23 Jan 2005 17:30:04 +1300

    On Sat, 22 Jan 2005 10:36:58 -0500, "Steve Marcus"
    <smarcus_spamout_@cox.net> wrote:

    >
    >"Eric Stevens" <eric.stevens@sum.co.nz> wrote in message
    >news:72b3v0pfs7j4g2e7mcfrua4chrb5d5f8lv@4ax.com...
    >> On Fri, 21 Jan 2005 18:22:12 -0500, "Steve Marcus"
    >> <smarcus_spamout_@cox.net> wrote:
    >>
    >>>
    >>>"Eric Stevens" <eric.stevens@sum.co.nz> wrote in message
    >>>news:3cf1v0li1plitsanio4hpglh1vjfqm8ppg@4ax.com...
    >>>> On Thu, 20 Jan 2005 23:48:49 -0700, "Tedd Jacobs"
    >>>> <Jacobs@mail.boisestate.edu> wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>>>
    >>>>>"Eric Stevens" wrote...
    >>>>>> On 21 Jan 2005 00:04:19 GMT, Philip Deitiker <Nopdeitik@att.net.Spam>
    >>>>>> wrote:
    >>>>>>
    >>>>>>>In sci.archaeology, Eric Stevens created a message ID
    >>>>>>>news:4v50v05cu9s9upmirpc1m296iur2f83h27@4ax.com:
    >>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>> On Thu, 20 Jan 2005 20:14:03 GMT, Philip Deitiker
    >>>>>>>> <Donevenask@worlnet.att.net> wrote:
    >>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>I know that Alan was Joking, apparently Steve didn't catch on.
    >>>>>>>>>But on a more serious note. This is in response to Doug's
    >>>>>>>reply
    >>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>"
    >>>>>>>>>I've never understood that 'old dictum'.
    >>>>>>>>>Absence of evidence is in fact evidence of absence. Not proof,
    >>>>>>>but
    >>>>>>>>>evidence of the probability of absence. And how likely that
    >>>>>>>is
    >>>>>>>>>depends upon the context.
    >>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>> The old dictum in fact is "Absence of evidence is NOT evidence
    >>>>>>>of
    >>>>>>>> absence" though many would argue that it was.
    >>>>>>>>>"
    >>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>> --- lengthy exposition snipped ----
    >>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>>Thus when a person declares Zero frequency of an event based
    >>>>>>>on zero
    >>>>>>>>>events he is also saying that the sampling for (not of) such
    >>>>>>>events
    >>>>>>>>>was great, that biasing or sampling errors is not a factor
    >>>>>>>worthy of
    >>>>>>>>>affecting the conclusion. And when a person says that a zero
    >>>>>>>events
    >>>>>>>>>does not reflect the reality or possibilities he is saying
    >>>>>>>that
    >>>>>>>>>sampling is poor, or the sampling was biased or that there
    >>>>>>>were
    >>>>>>>>>sampling errors to a degree in which a zero frequency
    >>>>>>>conclusion
    >>>>>>>>>should not be drawn. He is also saying, implicitly saying that
    >>>>>>>>>because he knows that the zero result in terms of binomial
    >>>>>>>>>probability opens the possibility for an infinite number
    >>>>>>>events of
    >>>>>>>>>non-zero frequency, that he has some trend that approaches
    >>>>>>>with non-
    >>>>>>>>>zero result the parameter proximal to where the sampling
    >>>>>>>>>result/parameter crosses the Y=0 axis. If we hold every
    >>>>>>>argument to
    >>>>>>>>>this standard of plausibility then many arguments will be
    >>>>>>>summarily
    >>>>>>>>>eliminated, sort of a kook filter, right off the bat. Does
    >>>>>>>this
    >>>>>>>>>argument mean something to the individual, or is it something
    >>>>>>>they
    >>>>>>>>>must ignore because they don't understand it.
    >>>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>> It's probably simpler for the ordinary individual to say 'the
    >>>>>>>reason
    >>>>>>>> you have no evidence is that you haven't found it yet'.
    >>>>>>>:-)
    >>>>>>>
    >>>>>>>Not true, there are many things that have no evidence in which
    >>>>>>>you while never have evidence because evidence does not exist.
    >>>>>>
    >>>>>> You can only say the evidence does not exist when you have evidence
    >>>>>> that it does not exist. Consider the Higgs boson. They have been
    >>>>>> searching for it for more than 30 years and so far, nothing. Yet they
    >>>>>> still keep looking. It's like a treasure hunt. You have to have faith
    >>>>>> that the treasure exists somewhere. That you eventually loose faith
    >>>>>> and give up does not mean that the treasure is not out there somewhere
    >>>>>> in the garden.
    >>>>>
    >>>>>kind of like "there is nothing before clovis!", "the world is flat",
    >>>>>"the
    >>>>>sound barrier can not be broken!",... no one had any evidence, so all
    >>>>>must
    >>>>>have been impossible, untill they found it. do UFO's exist? we dont
    >>>>>have
    >>>>>any evidence for it, and we dont have any evidence against it either.
    >>>>
    >>>> Quite right. :-)
    >>>
    >>>Actually, not. Here is a pro-UFO site playing around with Drake's
    >>>Equation
    >>>(aka as the Greenbank equation), which equation is an attempt to parse the
    >>>possibilities re intelligent life existing "out there."
    >>>
    >>>http://www.ufoevidence.org/documents/doc1739.htm
    >>>
    >>>What do you think of their analysis, which gives "165 immortal
    >>>civilizations" in our galaxy, and which relies upon "Fermi's Paradox" to
    >>>argue that even without any technology more advanced than ours, _we_ could
    >>>colonize the Milky Way Galaxy in only 50 million years? Seen any aliens
    >>>from "out there" lately?
    >>>
    >>>Here's some more on Drake's Equation, giving you the parameters involved:
    >>>
    >>>http://www.geocities.com/astrobio2000/A2.html
    >>>
    >>>Reasonable numbers plugged in to this equation yield just about one
    >>>civilization that could be "out there" to communicate. But assume that
    >>>the
    >>>pro-UFO site is correct; why are none of the aliens here; why don't the
    >>>communicate with us directly, why haven't we got positive evidence of
    >>>their
    >>>having visited Earth in the past?
    >>>
    >>>In short, given that the existence of life out there is a weak
    >>>possibility,
    >>>and that FTL travel is a weak possibility, and that finding the way to
    >>>_this_ particular planet is a weak possibility, it's actually correct to
    >>>state that absence of evidence that UFOs represent alien visitors is
    >>>fairly
    >>>strong evidence that UFOs don't represent alien visitors. It is also
    >>>correct to state that the absence of any evidence for present or future
    >>>contact by intelligent ET civilizations is pretty strong evidence that
    >>>they
    >>>don't exist.
    >>
    >> As usual, you are using the straw man technique to try and shift the
    >> grounds of the argument to something you expect to be able to win.
    >
    >Get a clue, Eric. Just because you don't understand what someone has
    >written does not convert it into a strawman argument.
    >
    >>
    >> Jjust concentrating on the last sentence before my reply, please read
    >> carefully what Tedd Jacobs wrote:
    >>
    >> "do UFO's exist? we dont have any evidence for it, and we dont have
    >> any evidence against it either."
    >>
    >> I responded 'quite right'. By writing 'actually not' you seem to be
    >> disagreeing. Which part of Tedd's statement do you think I am wrong to
    >> agree with?
    >
    >The part that says that we don't have any evidence against it either. The
    >"evidence against it" comes in two parts:
    >
    >Part I:
    >
    >the fact that there is absolutely no evidence yet to support it despite our
    >ability to find archaeological evidence on so many other other things and
    >the absence of evidence to back up the myriad encounters and sightings
    >alleged to have taken place;
    >
    >the fact that there is absolutely no evidence yet to support it despite the
    >number of UFO sightings and the investigations of them by so many
    >"believers" in them (where after all such investigations, is the concrete
    >evidence);
    >
    >the fact that there is no logical reason based upon the archaeological
    >evidence we do have to suppose that it was necessary for ET visitors to have
    >"sparked" ancient civilizations;
    >
    >the fact that even with respect to the origins of life on earth, there is no
    >necessity for ET visitors;
    >
    >the fact that ET UFO's have never attempted direct contact, yet for some
    >strange reason, seem to go out of their way to be flagrantly visible; (and
    >most importantly)
    >
    >Part II: the possibility that such evidence might exist is an extremely weak
    >one based upon analyses such as Drake's equation which show that even given
    >the small possibility that intelligent ET life might develop "out there",
    >the possibility that it might co-exist in the same timeframe as our
    >civilization is vanishingly small, and the knowledge that even if it did
    >(and does), the distances involved and the magnitude of the number of places
    >that such life would have to visit in order to get her is so huge as to make
    >"contact" an extremely remote proposition.
    >
    >"we dont have any
    >> evidence for it [UFO's]". If you agree with statement, do you disagree
    >> with the statement "we dont have any evidence against it [UFO's]
    >> either."
    >
    >See above. The weakness of the possibility of UFO visitations here coupled
    >with the other matters of fact laid out above combine to convert the absence
    >of evidence for ET UFO's (let's be clear here: UFO's exist, by definition;
    >people see unidentified flying objects all of the time, but the issue is
    >whether such objects represent ET contact) into pretty solid evidence (that
    >is, a very strong indication) that UFO's are not ET in nature.
    >
    >>
    >> If you know of **evidence** for UFO's I would be grateful if you could
    >> tell me what it is. Alternatively, ignoring Karl Popper for the time
    >> being, If we do have **evidence** against UFO's, I would like to know
    >> what it is.
    >
    >See above. As to Popper, we've already discussed in November of 2004 that
    >you do not understand Popper, and (giving you the benefit of the doubt), you
    >therefore attempt to misapply his concepts to things that have nothing to do
    >with scientific theories. Please honor the man by not invoking his name
    >unless you improve your understanding of his precepts and learn when they
    >are, and are not, applicable.
    >
    >Certainly, any fair analysis (either in a court of law applying evidentiary
    >standards and the toughest available legal standard of "beyond a reasonable
    >doubt" or in a scientific forum in which whatever measure of proof would
    >govern reaching a conclusion) demonstrates that the absence of evidence
    >against ET UFO's existing is compelling evidence that they have not existed,
    >and that they do not exist. Which is not the same thing as saying that it
    >*proves* that they have not existed and do not exist. The past and present
    >existence of ET UFO's stands on the same footing as that miraculous gust of
    >wind that will waft you to safety if you should jump off the Brooklyn
    >Bridge.
    >
    >>
    >> Please note, the description of evidence does not require paragraphs
    >> of convoluted argument.

    But evidently, trying to manufacture evidence where none exists does
    require paragraphs of convoluted argument. You should consider the
    root meaning of 'evidence'.
    >
    >And that's your problem. Of course one needs to explain why the facts add
    >up to evidence. That you choose to pretend that you don't follow the
    >argument by labeling it "convulted" before you've even read it (I think,
    >rather, that you can well understand the arguments I and others present, but
    >quite often you simply don't wish to understand because they demolish your
    >cherised fantasies) does not lessen the necessity for such explanation.
    >Neither does it invalidate such explanation.
    >>
    >> --- snip ---
    >>
    >>
    >>
    >Steve

    Eric Stevens

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