Re: What would an untended Earth look like in a hundred years?

Apparently on date Thu, 14 Apr 2005 02:18:35 GMT, Jerry Shaw
<jnshaw@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> said:

>I'm trying to write a short story, and I'd like to add a little realism to it.
>Basically, I would like to know what a city would be like in a hundred years
>if there was no one there to care for it.

First thing that springs to mind is the pictures of Chernobyl that you can find
on the web.

>Suppose one day, all the people on Earth are captured by aliens (not my story,
>but it illustrates the situation). They come back in exactly a hundred years.
>
>What happens to asphalt roads if they aren't repaired or used? Would a road
>still be recognizable as such if it was left to the elements for a hundred
>years? And what would it look like?

Roads and rail would be covered by earth, probably, and have trees growing in
them. You could recognise them as roads by their shape, e.g. the fact that they
are flat, equal width, connect to bridges and so forth. Canals and docks would
retain their shape, although not necessarily their function.

Big road junctions and motorway sections and things would be much the same as
they are now, although earthquakes and similar might have broken some of them
to some extent.

Basically, some roads would be gone, some would be identifiable but no longer
useful due to trees, some would still function as freeways and similar, but
there would be big risks of things like bridges being collapsed, deep cracks in
junctions, etc.

Grass and weeds in every crack and crevice.

Canals would be clogged with weeds, rivers would be the best transport system
to begin with. Railways might be intact still, but overgrown with weeds and the
rails would need skimming / repairing.

>In cities, would buildings still be standing, or would they all be rubble? In

Depends on the way it was constructed. Around here, most houses have wooden
joists for the floors and roof, this would decay if not maintained and in 100
years most houses of this sort would have walls in decent shape but the roof
will have fallen in. This will create damp in the brickwork and the walls would
start to erode away from the top. So, houses would be in all states of repair,
with plastic framed double glazing and slate roof intact and livable in once
the animals and weeds were cleaned out, through to houses that consist of
rubble sitting on foundations and little else.

Big structures like tower blocks would mostly persist intact, but some types of
structure need maintenance or will collapse, e.g. wooden railway bridges,
sports stadiums, etc. Again, depends on construction and a bit of luck.

Any earth tremors will do a lot of damage to partly collapsed buildings. In 100
years, quite a few minor tremors will have happened to most places.

>the suburbs, would wood frame houses or even brick or adobe houses still be
>there? I know that some of the answers depend on the climate. Los Angeles
>would have a better time of it than New York, for instance, due to the effects
>of the winter weather and the freeze/thaw cycling.

LA would instead have a lot more problems with insects and ants and things, not
to mention earthquakes. How much effect has ice had on building in NY that are
more than 100 years old?

>How about farmlands? Would they still have some remnants of their crops, but
>probably mixed with weeds?

I wouldn't expect to find potatoes. Orchards would still have apple trees,
wheat would survive but crops would mostly revert to uncultivated forms that
can compete with the weeds better. Plants that produce crops in order to spread
their seeds would continue to function ok, e.g. strawberries and blackberries
and so forth would be fine but not particularly numerous.

Thing is, a strawberry field would turn into an immature forest and the ground
level plants would be weeds, briars, grass and ferns, etc, there might be
strawberries there still, but things would change a lot.

>How about manmade things? Would a car be completely dissolved into a pile of
>rust for steel, white Aluminum Oxide for Aluminum, or (I don't know what) for
>plastic/fiberglass? Would the engine still be there? Would there be some cars
>that would not be touched (like a 1965 VW Beetle)?

Cars would be intact and recognisable. Aluminium engines would look more or
less new, although the iron parts like liners, cams, crankshaft, etc would be
rusting badly unless they were protected by engine oil (which I think would be
unlikely to be effective after 100 years). Rust would get into the upper
cylinder so the engine will not start.

Car bodies will look fairly normal except they will be rotten underneath and
the suspension will be dead. Tyres will be dust and bits of this and that.
Plastic interiors will be pretty much as new, as will the glass.

Wiring will all be dead, in cars and houses, the actual wires might be ok
inside in houses with some of the modern plastic bonded sheathing but the
exposed copper will have gone, and all junctions will be N/C.

>So generally, what kind of decay would I expect to see after a hundred years?

I think things will look similar. The skyline of a city will be recognisable
but some bits will be missing. Closer up, houses and cars that looked ok from a
distance will largely have lots of damage, insect, plant and animal life will
swamp everything that it can, which will be most of it.

In terms of rebuilding, it will mostly be easier to build new cities rather
than repair the ones that are still there, which will be a good source of
material like rocks and stones. Your returnees will use a lot of wood in this
process, clearing the fields which will be needed for farming. If you haven't
already done so, the population will reduce dramatically until it reaches a
stable, sustainable level to build back up from.

.

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