Re: What would an untended Earth look like in a hundred years?

Martyn,

Thanks a lot for the detailed analysis. You've given me a good lot to think
about. I hadn't really thought there would be so much construction still
intact.

Jerry


Martyn Harrison <nospam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>Apparently on date Thu, 14 Apr 2005 02:18:35 GMT, Jerry Shaw
><jnshaw@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> said:
>
>>I'm trying to write a short story, and I'd like to add a little realism to it.
>>Basically, I would like to know what a city would be like in a hundred years
>>if there was no one there to care for it.
>
>First thing that springs to mind is the pictures of Chernobyl that you can find
>on the web.
>
>>Suppose one day, all the people on Earth are captured by aliens (not my story,
>>but it illustrates the situation). They come back in exactly a hundred years.
>>
>>What happens to asphalt roads if they aren't repaired or used? Would a road
>>still be recognizable as such if it was left to the elements for a hundred
>>years? And what would it look like?
>
>Roads and rail would be covered by earth, probably, and have trees growing in
>them. You could recognise them as roads by their shape, e.g. the fact that they
>are flat, equal width, connect to bridges and so forth. Canals and docks would
>retain their shape, although not necessarily their function.
>
>Big road junctions and motorway sections and things would be much the same as
>they are now, although earthquakes and similar might have broken some of them
>to some extent.
>
>Basically, some roads would be gone, some would be identifiable but no longer
>useful due to trees, some would still function as freeways and similar, but
>there would be big risks of things like bridges being collapsed, deep cracks in
>junctions, etc.
>
>Grass and weeds in every crack and crevice.
>
>Canals would be clogged with weeds, rivers would be the best transport system
>to begin with. Railways might be intact still, but overgrown with weeds and the
>rails would need skimming / repairing.
>
>>In cities, would buildings still be standing, or would they all be rubble? In
>
>Depends on the way it was constructed. Around here, most houses have wooden
>joists for the floors and roof, this would decay if not maintained and in 100
>years most houses of this sort would have walls in decent shape but the roof
>will have fallen in. This will create damp in the brickwork and the walls would
>start to erode away from the top. So, houses would be in all states of repair,
>with plastic framed double glazing and slate roof intact and livable in once
>the animals and weeds were cleaned out, through to houses that consist of
>rubble sitting on foundations and little else.
>
>Big structures like tower blocks would mostly persist intact, but some types of
>structure need maintenance or will collapse, e.g. wooden railway bridges,
>sports stadiums, etc. Again, depends on construction and a bit of luck.
>
>Any earth tremors will do a lot of damage to partly collapsed buildings. In 100
>years, quite a few minor tremors will have happened to most places.
>
>>the suburbs, would wood frame houses or even brick or adobe houses still be
>>there? I know that some of the answers depend on the climate. Los Angeles
>>would have a better time of it than New York, for instance, due to the effects
>>of the winter weather and the freeze/thaw cycling.
>
>LA would instead have a lot more problems with insects and ants and things, not
>to mention earthquakes. How much effect has ice had on building in NY that are
>more than 100 years old?
>
>>How about farmlands? Would they still have some remnants of their crops, but
>>probably mixed with weeds?
>
>I wouldn't expect to find potatoes. Orchards would still have apple trees,
>wheat would survive but crops would mostly revert to uncultivated forms that
>can compete with the weeds better. Plants that produce crops in order to spread
>their seeds would continue to function ok, e.g. strawberries and blackberries
>and so forth would be fine but not particularly numerous.
>
>Thing is, a strawberry field would turn into an immature forest and the ground
>level plants would be weeds, briars, grass and ferns, etc, there might be
>strawberries there still, but things would change a lot.
>
>>How about manmade things? Would a car be completely dissolved into a pile of
>>rust for steel, white Aluminum Oxide for Aluminum, or (I don't know what) for
>>plastic/fiberglass? Would the engine still be there? Would there be some cars
>>that would not be touched (like a 1965 VW Beetle)?
>
>Cars would be intact and recognisable. Aluminium engines would look more or
>less new, although the iron parts like liners, cams, crankshaft, etc would be
>rusting badly unless they were protected by engine oil (which I think would be
>unlikely to be effective after 100 years). Rust would get into the upper
>cylinder so the engine will not start.
>
>Car bodies will look fairly normal except they will be rotten underneath and
>the suspension will be dead. Tyres will be dust and bits of this and that.
>Plastic interiors will be pretty much as new, as will the glass.
>
>Wiring will all be dead, in cars and houses, the actual wires might be ok
>inside in houses with some of the modern plastic bonded sheathing but the
>exposed copper will have gone, and all junctions will be N/C.
>
>>So generally, what kind of decay would I expect to see after a hundred years?
>
>I think things will look similar. The skyline of a city will be recognisable
>but some bits will be missing. Closer up, houses and cars that looked ok from a
>distance will largely have lots of damage, insect, plant and animal life will
>swamp everything that it can, which will be most of it.
>
>In terms of rebuilding, it will mostly be easier to build new cities rather
>than repair the ones that are still there, which will be a good source of
>material like rocks and stones. Your returnees will use a lot of wood in this
>process, clearing the fields which will be needed for farming. If you haven't
>already done so, the population will reduce dramatically until it reaches a
>stable, sustainable level to build back up from.

.

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