Re: Possible evidence for Stone Age (Clovis) Cosmic Catastrophe?

nospam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:

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Because comets are rare, i.e. I've seen only a few, combining the remote chance
of an impact with the small number of comets in a typical decade, or whatever,
makes the likelihood of a cometary impact something that happens on average a
few times in a decade divided by a very small chance per decade.

You need instead to show that comets are more common than historical records /
personal experience seem to show. Clube and Napier manage this by interpreting
anything remotely possible as a comet, and argue that we're living in a period
of remarkably few comets compared to the (unknown) rest of pre-history and the
unknowns of the future.

Comets are not in the least rare. Here is the list of comets newly discovered in 2004:

http://www.comethunter.de/2004.html

Here is a list of comets named after their human discoverers. You will often see comets named Linear X, or SOHO Y; but these, and some others, are the names of comet-hunting observatories, not individuals:

http://www.comethunter.de/discoverers.txt

These, of course, are in addition to the many comets known from long ago. Comets are not uncommon; and IIRC, they frequently have orbits relatively well aligned with the plane of the solar system. And, of course, the gravitation of Jupiter and Saturn can alter a comet's orbit so that it becomes an Earth orbit crosser.

This is also not taking into account the asteroids that also are continuing to be discovered. More than a couple have been discovered very shortly before they had a near-miss with Earth. I've seen a couple that were announced on-line, as there wasn't time to get them into _Sky and Telescope_ or _Astronomy_, or the other monthlies.



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