Re: Roman amphorae from a Roman shipwreck?

On May 31, 11:17 am, "Uwe Müller" <uwemuel...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"Jack Linthicum" <jacklinthi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> schrieb im Newsbeitragnews:1180556028.458295.250700@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On May 30, 3:31 pm, "Uwe Müller" <uwemuel...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:> "Jack Linthicum" <jacklinthi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> schrieb im

Newsbeitragnews:1180548646.749923.109770@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> On May 30, 10:59 am, "Uwe Müller" <uwemuel...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

"Tom McDonald" <kilt...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> schrieb im
Newsbeitragnews:I8f7i.3245$6q.1990@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Eric Stevens wrote:
On Tue, 29 May 2007 21:50:34 GMT, "johansson"
<1732johans...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Eric Stevens <eric.stev...@xxxxxxxxx> skrev i

diskussionsgruppsmeddelandet:s73p535ao82kgblqv4ft2vepq55eso7...@xxxxxxxxxx



snip

If you compare the total number of shipwrecks in the Med, no matter
what
port of origin, with supposedly hundreds of Roman age wrecks off the
Brazilian coast, then the traffic from Rome to Brazil must have
exceeded
the
roman shipping in the Med by a large factor.

As the wrecks from the Med are from a couple of thousand years, while
Roman
seafaring only lasted a couple of centuries, this would imply huge
fleets
leaving Rome for Brazil on a daily basis.

I would not accept the 'hundreds of wrecks' on hear-say.

have fun

Uwe Mueller
Also because of the extremely high rate of expected wrecks (Romans
calculated that at least 30% of cargo would have been lost by storms
or pirate assaults), the traffic was proportionally (or perhaps more)
increased, and many goods were found (ordinarily contained in amphoras
or in the larger dolia) that let us understand what the commerce was
about.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_archaeologyhttp://www2.rgzm.de/...





The number of Roman ships was in the thousands, 1,200 for grain alone.
Blow the estimate out to 4000 ships making at least voyage each
sailing year (about 8 months). From the start of the Empire to 400 AD
or so that would be about 1.6 million ship/voyages. Since the loss of
ships was estimated at 30% there are 480,000 lost ships in the Med for
just 400 years.

And of this 480,000 wrecks how many are known? One in thousand? One in ten
thousand? That would mean that the several hundred known Roman wrecks off
Brazil would be the remains of several hundred thousand or several million
ships that tried the trip, those that failed off the coast of Brazil.

Comparing the number of ships, which we don't really know, with the number
of wrecks in total, which we also don't know is a nice exercise, but it
does
have little value. Comparing the number of wrecks known in both areas, can
provide at least a rough estimate about frequency of travel. It is a very
rough estimate, especially as chances of discovery are much higher in the
Med.

If there are 200 shipwrecks of Roman ships in Brazilian waters that
would suggest something like 450 voyages, about one a year for the
same 400 years.

That escapes me.
If 30 % of the ships are lost each trip, 200 (the minimun number for
several
hundred) wrecks attest for 600 ships. But that would mean, every disaster,
every pirate attack had to happen off the coast of Brazil and every one of
those ships would have been discovered. How likely is that scenario?

So you'd have to add a number of wrecks undiscovered until now, let's say
100 for everyone we know of, and than at least double the number of
wrecks,
the trip back being the harder part of the voyage. A rough, conservative,
minimum-numbers estimate points at several hundred thousand ships that
tried
the voyage, 40,000 that were lost, something like 100 regularly every
year,
if the basic number of 200 discovered wrecks was correct.

That doesn't sound like a lot of trips if they were blown off a voyage
to the Canaries or the Cape Verde islands.

It all depends on how you do the math.

have fun

Uwe Mueller

JL:
It always depends on how you do the math. If only two ships a year
make the trip, intentionally or involuntarily, that's 800 ships. If
you lose 30% of those ships, that is two every three years, a logical
number that doesn't take into account the ability of virtually every
ship through the 19th century to repair or recreate itself on the
spot, you have about 240 in the agua near Brazil.

UM:
If all their ships went down off Brazil, none on the voyage there, none on
the voyage back, your figures could be correct. The chances for that are
small.
And, not to forget, all of the ships that sunk, would have to be spotted and
located, not one single wreck lost. Compare the record for the
Mediterranean, not some imagined figures, and you will realise, it is simply
not true.
And if you want to add figures from 19th seafarers, thats nice for the math
bit, but has got nothing to do with roman shipping.

So I repeat, everybody with a little bit of common sense should distrust the
'several hundred Roman wrecks' supposedly located off Brazils coast. even
working with the figures presented by you, the numbers do not fit.

That is basic archaeology, we do not have all the artefacts that have been
created, only a small fraction is known.

have fun

Uwe Mueller

If you accept Cousin (1488) and Cabral (1500) as data points ships
were blown to Brazil every 12 years.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Roman amphorae from a Roman shipwreck?
    ... Brazilian coast, then the traffic from Rome to Brazil must have exceeded ... Also because of the extremely high rate of expected wrecks (Romans ... Blow the estimate out to 4000 ships making at least voyage each ... That would mean that the several hundred known Roman wrecks off ...
    (sci.archaeology)
  • Re: Roman amphorae from a Roman shipwreck?
    ... with supposedly hundreds of Roman age wrecks ... imply huge fleets leaving Rome for Brazil on a daily basis. ... Blow the estimate out to 4000 ships making at least voyage ... coast of Brazil. ...
    (sci.archaeology)
  • Re: Roman amphorae from a Roman shipwreck?
    ... with supposedly hundreds of Roman age wrecks ... imply huge fleets leaving Rome for Brazil on a daily basis. ... Blow the estimate out to 4000 ships making at least voyage ... coast of Brazil. ...
    (sci.archaeology)
  • Re: Roman amphorae from a Roman shipwreck?
    ... huge fleets leaving Rome for Brazil on a daily basis. ... Also because of the extremely high rate of expected wrecks (Romans ... Since the loss of ships was estimated at 30% there are 480,000 ... That would mean that the several hundred known Roman ...
    (sci.archaeology)
  • Re: Roman amphorae from a Roman shipwreck?
    ... would imply huge fleets leaving Rome for Brazil on a daily basis. ... Blow the estimate out to 4000 ships making at least voyage ... Roman wrecks off Brazil would be the remains of several hundred ... failed off the coast of Brazil. ...
    (sci.archaeology)