Re: Fermi paradox, your own belief?

From: Erik Max Francis (max_at_alcyone.com)
Date: 06/25/04 

Date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 14:32:25 -0700

Jens Egon Nyborg wrote:

> Local probability *can* be zero.
>
> <proof (sort off)>
>
> Let an unknown process randomly assign every planet a 'suitablity
> number' s evenly dristributed on the unit-interval [0;1] (including
> endpoints).
>
> If and only if s=1 sentience arises on this planet.
>
> Then local probability *is* zero.
>
> </proof>

That's like saying that it's possible to find a real orbit which has an
eccentricity of exactly 0 or exactly 1 (not just very close, or equal to
the limit of precision, but precisely). One can talk about such things
in a mathematical idealization, but in the real world there's no way to
have such situations.

> If a species is interested in space to such an extent that it will
> send
> out signal, then I would consider it highly unlikely to stay at home
> and
> not colonize.

But this is completely undemonstrated. 

-- 
 __ Erik Max Francis && max@alcyone.com && http://www.alcyone.com/max/
/  \ San Jose, CA, USA && 37 20 N 121 53 W && AIM erikmaxfrancis
\__/ Nobody's on nobody's side
    -- Florence, _Chess_

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