Re: What will Santa bring the amateur astronomer this Christmas?

On Oct 4, 3:26 pm, Too_Many_Tools <too_many_to...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
So will there be a push for 60mm refractors this year under the tree?

TMT

Recession-stung stores plan old-fashioned holidays
By ANNE D'INNOCENZIO, AP Retail Writer Anne D'innocenzio, Ap Retail
Writer
Sun Oct 4, 7:02 am ET

NEW YORK – Stores are turning back the clock, conjuring images of
hearth and home as they stock their holiday merchandise.

Retailers hope embracing holiday traditions from cozier times will
tempt recession-weary consumers to open their wallets in a season
expected to show flat sales at best.

That means shoppers will see more gingerbread houses and peppermint
crunch cookies, and fewer exotic teas and flavored olive oils; classic
ball ornaments instead of offbeat cowboys or cartoon-themed character
figures; and an emphasis on simple festive wear like shimmery tops
instead of elaborately beaded gowns.

Traditional Christmas colors — red, green and gold — are also back.

That's a big departure from recent years when stores pushed the
whimsical and splashy, from the upside-down Christmas tree fad in 2007
to stockings adorned with mermaids and elephants. Stores, wary after
the sudden, deep drop in spending late last year, seek to tap into an
American psyche that wants comfort and affordability after so many
shocks.

A lot is riding on the switch, because holiday sales account for up to
40 percent of annual sales for many merchants. For retailers already
hobbled, it could be a do-or-die season.

Industry worries are high because shoppers, who were afraid to buy a
year ago, are now grappling with rising job losses, reduced hours or
unavailable credit. The unemployment rate is now 9.7 percent, up from
around 7 percent last holiday season.

"When the world feels upside down, you don't want your tree to be,"
said Kit Yarrow, professor of consumer psychology at Golden Gate
University in San Francisco. "Nostalgia is a way for people to feel
safe."

Last fall's spending falloff came too late for the industry to
overhaul its products in time for the holidays. Stores typically start
planning for Christmas a year in advance. Starting in the depths of
the meltdown, stores ditched their 2009 plans in favor of more
comforting themes, which appear to be striking the right note for an
economy that continues to lose jobs and that has only tentative
patches of stabilization.

"The ability for consumers to buy is much worse than it was a year
ago," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wells Fargo. "It's just
not fashionable to spend a lot of money for Christmas, or for
anything. It is fashionable to live within your means."

Home shopping network HSN was already starting to create an elaborate
pea***-themed Christmas, when the financial meltdown spurred it to
scrap the designs in favor of an old-fashioned approach: tartan plaid
on everything from throws to ornaments, and stockings adorned with
classic icons such as angels and Santas.

"The pea*** had stood out like a trend, but it wouldn't have been the
safe tradition," said Chris Nicola, HSN's vice president of
merchandising, home design. "(This) is comfortable to look at. It's
familiar."

Stores are still feeling the pain from last year's holiday season,
which economists say was the weakest since at least 1967, when the
Commerce Department started collecting retail sales data. And this
year could even be worse.

Vitner forecasts total holiday sales could be down as much as 3.5
percent for November and December, on top of a 2.5 percent drop a year
ago. The best-case scenario, Vitner believes, is for a 1 percent
decline.

A 4 percent sales gain is considered healthy if inflation is low. The
industry enjoyed gains of almost 8 percent in 2005 and 9 percent in
1999, when both the real estate and the stock market were booming,
Vitner said.

The National Retail Federation trade group has not released its
holiday forecast yet. According to its calculations, holiday 2008
sales fell 3.4 percent from the year before. Like Vitner's figures,
NRF's numbers exclude restaurants, gasoline and autos, but the trade
group also excludes online sales.

Home Depot, which had experimented in the past with of-the-moment hues
of purple and brown for holiday decor, is going back to red, green and
gold. The Christmas trees that hung upside-down? Gone entirely. And
the regular trees are green, not red or gold.

Luxury retailer Saks Fifth Avenue is stocking up on gingerbread houses
and ball ornaments; it's also opening a holiday men's shop filled with
classic accessories like suspenders and cufflinks.

That fashion is coloring the holidays from cards to ornaments:

• Hallmark Cards Inc. is tapping into this nonmaterialistic mood by
adding cards that focus on the importance of being together with
family, rather than gift-giving.

_Online retailer 1-800 Flowers created a whole new division called
1-800 Baskets, selling gift baskets with simple edibles like roasted
salted nuts and peppermint crunch cookies in baskets priced from $15
to $400. In past holiday seasons, the company had emphasized elaborate
floral arrangements, exotic teas and wine sets that cost as much as
$1,200.

"It's old-fashioned and traditional, and therefore much more in
vogue," said Jim McCann, 1-800 Flowers president.

_Saks Fifth Avenue developed a store-brand line of traditional
ornaments costing $8 to $32. That compares with the $50 average price
for well-known designer brand and key Saks supplier Christopher
Radko.

Ostentatious outdoor displays are also getting the boot.

HSN is moving away from holiday lawn decor to interior decorations,
including adding nativity scenes. That means fewer of the big
inflatable lawn decorations that have dominated suburban yards in
recent years.

"People are spending more time inside. They are doing less of the
showoff" on the lawn, Nicola said.

Another indicator of the possible Christmas season..

TMT

Retail sales to show slump may persist
By Jessica Wohl Jessica Wohl


CHICAGO (Reuters) – U.S. retailers probably saw sales decline again in
September, signaling weak demand leading into the holiday season that
will require chains to sharpen their focus on value.

This year's later Labor Day holiday was expected to push a good chunk
of sales from August into September. But consumers' concerns about the
economy, especially rising unemployment, weighed on spending.

Analysts are calling for an average decline of 1 percent in sales at
stores open at least a year, according to Thomson Reuters data. Such a
decline would be the smallest monthly drop since September 2008, when
same-store sales fell 0.9 percent. (http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/
109/US_RETAIL1009.gif)

Major retailers, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N), Kroger Co
(KR.N) and Best Buy Co Inc (BBY.N), do not issue monthly sales
reports, but results from the chains that do can give investors a sign
of how the overall market is faring.

For more than a year, value has been the key proposition for shoppers,
and that is unlikely to change soon.

"Anywhere that people feel like they're getting a perceived bargain,
that's where people are going to be attracted right now," said Steve
Ferrara, a partner in BDO Seidman's retail and consumer product
practice in Chicago.

Discounters TJX Cos Inc (TJX.N) and Ross Stores (ROST.O) are among the
few retailers expected to post increases. Analysts expect high-end
stores such as Saks Inc (SKS.N) and Nordstrom (JWN.N) to report deeper
declines than chains with more of a value message, such as Kohl's Corp
(KSS.N) and JC Penney Co Inc (JCP.N).

"People are just pulling back in general," said Patricia Edwards,
founder and chief investment officer at Storehouse Partners.

The trend may even deepen this year as more Americans suffer from job
losses and dried-up credit limits.

"If last year was a socks-and-underwear Christmas, I think this year
is going to be even tougher," Edwards said.

The National Retail Federation said on Tuesday that it expected U.S.
holiday retail sales to fall 1 percent this year, on top of last
year's 3.4 percent decline.

Retail stocks have rallied sharply since early March, outpacing the
growth in the overall market, as investors bet that a consumer
shopping revival could be just around the corner. But in September
those hopes cooled a bit and the Standard & Poor's Retail index (.RLX)
rose 3.6 percent, in line with the Standard & Poor's 500 index (.SPX).

On Tuesday morning, the S&P retail index was up 2 percent, compared
with a rise of 1.8 percent in the S&P 500.

BACK-TO-SCHOOL MAY NOT MEAN BACK TO SPENDING

Labor Day, the U.S. holiday which falls on the first Monday in
September, landed on September 7 in 2009 after falling on September 1
in 2008. That shift meant several more pre-Labor Day selling days,
including the entire holiday weekend, are in the September sales
reporting month this year.

"The retailers were hoping that with everything being pushed back,
September would be better," BDO Seidman's Ferrara said.

But in the same month, unemployment hit a 26-year high of 9.8 percent,
making September same-store sales difficult to predict.

"I think flat would be, like, awesome," Ferrara said. "Everyone's
expecting September to be down a little bit, and I also think they're
expecting the holiday season to be down a little bit."

Same-store sales at teen and children's apparel retailers are likely
to fall 6.3 percent, on top of last year's 4.7 percent decline,
according to Thomson Reuters.

Once again, analysts expect Abercrombie & Fitch Co (ANF.N) to post the
steepest drop of any retailer, at 19.9 percent. In August, its same-
store sales plunged 29 percent.

Still, there are bright spots in children's wear. Aeropostale Inc
(ARO.N) and Gymboree Corp (GYMB.O) are likely to raise their quarterly
earnings forecasts on the heels of September results, as both appeared
to do well with back-to-school shoppers and kept an eye on margins,
said FBR Capital Markets analyst Adrienne Tennant.

Apparel retailers overall are expected to show flat sales. Analysts
expect declines of 1 percent for discount retailers and 4.6 percent
for department stores.

"There's certainly still going to be those people who will shop at
Nordstrom and people who will shop at Macy's (M.N)," said Edwards of
Storehouse Partners, "but I just don't think that the dollars are
going to flow there the way they have in the past."

Among department stores, she praised Kohl's strong balance ***,
store openings and ability to bring in good merchandise and make a
decent margin on it in the midst of discounting.

Edwards, who did an informal survey of holiday spending, said thrift
appeared to be in.

"Everyone was really downplaying what they were doing for the holiday
season," she said. "I think it's not going to be considered so gauche,
as it used to be, that not everything comes in a box from Macy's, or
Tiffany, or something like that."

(Reporting by Jessica Wohl; Editing by Michele Gershberg, Matthew
Lewis and Lisa Von Ahn)

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