Re: Artificial life likely in 3 to 10 years
- From: dk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (DK)
- Date: Sat, 1 Sep 2007 00:56:26 -0400 (EDT)
"Alan Meyer" <ameyer2@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"DK" <dk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:fb49p3$fcf$1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
.....
As of today, there is absolutely no difference between robots and.....
computers. That is, both are dumber than a cricket. Nor they show
any potential to be as efficient as microbes.
I have read two of Moravec's books and the similar book by
Kurzweil - both outstanding experts in AI. In my personal view
they are overly optimistic about their timetables, but not about
their conclusions.
Overly optimistic about their timetables, for sure.
There is no doubt that the problems involved in creating artificial
life and artificial intelligence, using either genetic or electronic
engineering (or some combination of the two), are very, very,
very difficult. But I don't believe anyone has successfully shown
that these problems are inherently unsusceptible to solution.
Many have tried. The usual line of attack is that computers are
deterministic machines and intelligence is not deterministic.
That's not even a relevant attack. (And wrong, too).
But
I don't think anyone has proven the latter to be the case, or that
human brains are any less deterministic than electronic ones -
just vastly more complex.
Vastly is a huge understatement :-)
When we look at the science and technology of 2007 and compare
it to 1907 or 1807 or 1707, the progress is astonishing. If we
say that artificial intelligence will not be created by 2010, or 2015,
or even 2050, I'm prepared to go along with that. But I don't
think any of us can predict what will be learned and what will
be engineered by 2107 or 2207 or 2307 - the blink of an eye
in evolutionary terms. If I thought I'd be around to collect on
the bet, I'd bet everything I had that the problems WILL be
solved in the next few hundred years.
It will probably happen but when it does, it won't be through
building incredibly complex calculator but through use of new
materials and processes capable of exhibiting enormous
plasticity of a biological cell. Electronic on and off switches,
no matter how many, fundamentally cannot achieve it, IMO.
DK
.
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