Re: News: Is there anybody out there?


On Apr 17, 1:18 am, "Robert Karl Stonjek" <rston...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
...
His model, published in the journal Astrobiology, suggests an
upper limit for the probability of each step occurring is 10
per cent or less, so the chances of intelligent life emerging
is low - less than 0.01 per cent over four billion years.
...

I find it hard to believe that we have enough information to
know:

- What steps are truly required to produce intelligent life.

- What caused each step to occur on earth.

- What the probability of any step occurring is - either on
earth or in a different environment.

- What is a habitable planet for other possible biochemistries.

- How many habitable planets there are.

However, I'm all in favor of these kinds of speculations. They
induce people to try to think quantitatively about subjects that
most of us assume, without trying, can't be quantified. They
can't give us accurate answers, but they can focus our thinking
on understanding what the issues are.

Alan

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Do you believe?
    ... to assign some probability p that intelligent life ... Paradox--that we cannot detect evidence of another civilization, ... It seems reasonable to assume that the Earth ...
    (sci.astro.amateur)
  • Re: OT: Astronomy - we are small
    ... intelligent life on other planets? ... probability for that is certain. ... life on earth was created by some deity and it forgot to inhabit other ... Unless you know the probability of intelligent life arising on any ...
    (rec.sport.tennis)
  • Re: OT: Astronomy - we are small
    ... intelligent life on other planets? ... probability for that is certain. ... life on earth was created by some deity and it forgot to inhabit other ... Unless you know the probability of intelligent life arising on any ...
    (rec.sport.tennis)
  • Re: The Reasonable Minority
    ... starting with a "design hypothesis"? ... Does anyone know what the probability is that an "intelligent ... choose a monkey-like animal for intelligent life on earth? ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Probability of the origin of life
    ... should have been the probability that life actually originated in the ... life had to originate necessarily in the primordial earth? ... There are *two* kinds of probability. ...
    (talk.origins)
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