Re: Evolution is NOT random
- From: Lorentz <drosen0000@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 20 May 2008 13:49:24 -0400 (EDT)
On May 17, 5:53 pm, John W Edser <ed...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
r norman <r_s_norman@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wroteToday's Neo Darwinistic
evolutionary theory establishment is Post Modern because it predicatesThis is false. The use of probability theory is not Post
itself on things like probabilities, i.e. something that we can measure
_but do not understand_. Science is all about understanding in a
falsifiable way and not just, not understanding.
Modern. Post Modern is the belief that reality is determined by the
collective belief of human beings. It is a belief that scientific
theory is a construct of the human mind. The physical reality behind
properly constructed probabilities exist independent of the collective
human mind.
The misconception described is based on a false tautology with a
partial truth. Yes, we USE a value for probability of an event in the
absence of a deterministic equation for that event. His logic is that
when a deterministic equation is found, the probability value ceases
to mean anything. However, the reality is that the probability STILL
represents part of the reality, regardless of whether people use the
deterministic equation or not. The probability describes the
redundancy of the initial conditions. This redundancy exists whether
or not people are there. The priorities set by the user of the
probability are themselves part of the physical conditions of the real
world.
One can consider blackjack. The cards really exist. Yes, there
is a partial deterministic way to "beat the game." One can in
principle "count cards." "Counting cards" reflects a method of
changing the probabilities in favor of the person playing relative to
"intuition." There is a set of probabilities for "counting" that
exist, and a set of probabilities for "intuition" that exists. Both
sets reflect part of the physical reality of a deck of cards.
However, their "use" depends on the initial conditions. If the
card player is afraid of the Mafia more than the results of his
intuition, he won't count. If the card player is afraid of the results
of his intuition more than the Mafia, he will count. If the person
want to understand the physical reality of a deck of cards, he may
want to play both ways at home. However, the existence of two sets of
probabilities is not created by the human mind, it is merely
discovered. The human mind itself is not created by the human mind.
The card player "discovers" his preferences. The history of the card
player is a real physical trajectory, and exists regardless of
"collective events."
This is not off-topic. Getting back to evolution:
Theories of natural history are not any more Post Modern than
blackjack. Even if one had exact physical theories that precisely
calculated the development of animals from initial conditions, it
would not in any way compromise the importance of either paleontology
or "neoDarwinist analysis." Because of redundancy in history, there
would still be an interest in what the initial conditions were. For
instance, one could calculate using this "deterministic theory"
several trajectories leading to the current diversity of animal life.
Some of these trajectories would involve a "Cambrian explosion" 550
MYA, and others would not. However, there would still be no way to
determine that there was a "Cambrian explosion" without paleontology.
There would still be no way to determine which of the possible
trajectories that pass through the "Cambrian explosion."
It is odd that some people should slam "Post Modernism" in one
post and quote Karl Popper in another post since Karl Popper is the
most popular "Post Modernist" alive.
.
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