Re: Household Debt to GDP Ratio Explodes

From: George (George_at_polyglot.com)
Date: 06/09/04


Date: Wed, 09 Jun 2004 03:10:35 -0000

retrogrouch@comcast.net wrote in news:ak2cc0pq6l50ri5d4sbj2fuqian3euic9s@
4ax.com:

> On Tue, 8 Jun 2004 13:33:18 -0500, "News" <nospam@nospam.com> wrote:
>
>>Year Ratio
>>1991 62%
>>1992 62%
>>1993 62%
>>1994 63%
>>1995 64%
>>1996 65%
>>1997 66%
>>1998 67%
>>1999 68%
>>2000 70%
>>2001 74%
>>2002 78%
>>2003 83%
>>
>>Ratio=CMDEBT/GDP
>>
>>http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT/
>>http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP/
>
> But what is the significance of this? A fairly large portion of it is
> I suspect people who had high interest rate credit cards moving that
> debt to low interest 2nd mortgages and lines of credit.
>
> I never let a balance accumulate on my credit card. I insist on paying
> it off every month. On months I'm not in a position to, I move it
> from a house secured line of credit. It's saves me about 5%.
>
> But of course I pay the line of credit off every year also. It doesn't
> work as well if you're not paying it down or off.
>
> Anyway, if you're trying to draw some conclusion about debt loads, I
> think you have to add in consumer debt/credit card debt.
>
> To people who can afford it, it makes no sense not to avail yourself
> of the extraordinary low rates on mortgages now.
>
> (That said, I'm sure too though that a significant portion is also
> from the 8+ million discouraged workers who are getting by on debt
> waiting for the economy to recover - but this should show up in a
> combined debt figure as an increase, where as the credit card theory
> would stay relatively neutral.) IMHO.
>
> ________
> Conservatives whine about the Liberals controlling the world
> like the Nazis whined about the Jews controlling the world.

The customers I deal with are taking advantage of the low interest rates.
Unfortunately they are using the refi money to junk. Very few are saving
or investing it.

I believe this has helped produce an 'April Fool's' recovery which when
the rates start up will turn into the recession it has always been.
Manipulating data, false GDP's driven by military spending and bogus jobs
data has been what this administration has given this country. The
foundation isn't there for a sustained recovery.

I see many houses being brought by investors not by families. These guys
are counting on quick turn around, rising prices and stable rates.
Greenspan will raise rates after the election regardless of who gets
elected.

The phrase 'All hat and no cattle' suits this administration to a tee.

Everyone has known or worked with these type of folks. The ones that let
everything go to hell in a handbasket but make pretty reports and charts
that paint a rosy but false picture. They eventually get caught. Most of
the time to late.

Bush has run his entire life that way - why should he actually perform
now?