drug consolidation Re: OptimalStrategy playing the StockMarket VonNeumann Gametheory; Crossover technique; 100 more free shares BMY

From: Archimedes Plutonium (a_plutonium_at_iw.net)
Date: 07/27/04 

Date: Tue, 27 Jul 2004 12:05:04 -0500

Who will merge or buyout Bristol Myers?

The driving mechanism for drug companies in the next few years will be
consolidation because of the increasing government controls over pricing.

We already can see this mechanism yesterday when Mylan announced a buyout
of King Pharmaceutical in a 4 billion dollar deal.

To counterweight political control over drug prices, leaves the drug
companies with the option of consolidation in order to maintain revenues
and earnings.

Pfizer for the past decade has aggressively adopted the consolidation
program buying Warner Lambert, buying Pharmacia etc etc.

Question for me is who will merge or buyout Bristol Myers? Perhaps Wyeth
since it for over a decade has tried to merge with a large company and
Wyeth and Bristol-Myers are about equal in market capitalization. Perhaps
Glaxo since it is about twice the market capital of BMY. Both do not have a
cholesterol drug in their cabinets. But Pravachol is losing patent in 2006.

But I suspect that there is a Zetia-like compound which boosts the
effectiveness of Pravachol. I also suspect that Pravachol is the least
side-effect yielding cholesterol reducer as evidenced by it being the
preferred drug for young people.

So, that, if a Zetia-like booster compound can be found for Pravachol and
which elevates the effectiveness of Pravachol beyond that of Zocor or
Lipitor, plus, makes Pravachol safer in terms of side-effects, would make
BMY king of the drug mountain of cholesterol reducers.

Neither Glaxo nor Wyeth are represented in the cholesterol drugs nor is
Hoffman L. and an entry via a buyout of BMY would be the easiest entry. And
at today's market value of BMY, a buyout of BMY would get their cholesterol
drug expertise and Pravachol for free and would be paying for its Abilify
and Erbitux and Plavix.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.archimedesplutonium.com
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
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