USA has been in on continuous Recession since 1999 and good chance of falling into Depression

From: Archimedes Plutonium (a_plutonium_at_iw.net)
Date: 08/21/04 

Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 12:59:35 -0500

It never ceases to amaze me how daffy most people are when it comes time
to look at the "news objectively". And not even the news reporters able
to see objective from subjective.

Case in point is whether the USA is in Recession. Not even the
economists can see and understand that the USA has been in one
continuously long Recession that commenced in 1999. Virtually every
economist that I know of has claimed an Expansion having occurred during
1999 through 2004 and their claim is supported by the Fed.Res starting
to raise interest rates in 2004.

I have said throughout this period of time that to know economics is to
know the price of oil. As oil fares, so does world economy and
especially USA economy.

I have said throughout this period of time that news reports such as
Nightly Business Report on PBS is mostly off mark, off course and mostly
irrelevant tinker bobble. Because, starting January first of year 1999
if the Nightly Business REport had begun each program with just a
statement of the price of oil throughout those 6 years would have
accurately reported on the state of the USA economy. Every viewer could
have thence realized that we were starting a recession in 1999 because
oil was rising and would have stuck in a recession throughout those 6
years. And Mr. Greenspan, if he had paid more attention to oil than all
of those other silly numbers would also realize that we are still deep
in Recession and rather pointless to be raising interest rates. Mr.
Greenspan has a blind spot in failing to realize that as oil prices go
up, that not much else will go up; of a situation unlike the 1970s where
prices of everything went up in *unison with oil* but in 1999-2004 oil
prices can go up singularly or solo and other commodity prices stay
flat.

One of the major reasons Mr. Bush went into Iraq, for I should not say
the USA because this war was not initiated by the people of the USA save
for a small group of people around Mr. Bush. The Iraq war was a war of
revenge for the Bush family on SH. But the other reason Mr. Bush wanted
war besides revenge was that he thought the price of world crude oil
would become cheap once Iraq was occupied just like after the first Iraq
war of 1990 which led to a decade long cheap oil. So Mr. Bush thought
that the decade of 2003-2013 was going to be another decade similar to
1990-1999 with cheap oil. We know better now.

We also know that China and India have a demand on world oil due to
their expanding economies some of which is the outsourcing of USA jobs.

The decades of cheap oil perhaps are ended.

The last great Expansion was 1990-1999 and the cause of that expansion
was firstly-- cheap oil and secondly-- new technology. So it seems as
though to have a Expansion requires two things to take place. Cheap
energy along with a new technology. In the 1990s the new technology was
Internet.

I do not see any new technology on the near future horizon. I do see
Human Cloning on the intermediate term future horizon that will surpass
what the Internet was in the 1990s as new technology.

But new technology alone does not create a Expansion for it seems to
require contributing support by energy costs. Most of the people in the
energy business in the USA had expected that Fusion would be the answer.
They are miserably wrong because of the Fusion Barrier Principle. So the
clear answer for the USA as to energy is more Fission Electric Power
Plants such as France where over 60% is fission energy. Then there is
the other option for the USA with its huge oilshale reserves that is
larger than all of the liquid-oil of the world.

I would hazard to guess, for predictions are often murky, that the USA
has a 50 to 50 chance of this 6 year long Recession of falling into a
Depression. I say that because the current administration has no Energy
Plan. It does not even understand the reality of our present situation.
It looks at band-aid fixes such as Alaska oil or more Fusion funding or
more exploration. When it should have started to build more fission
power plants in year 2002. It should have initiated a OilShale Plan in
2002 and broken ground for a OilShale Electric Power Plant in Colorado
by 2004 with more to come.

What also weighs in favor of a Depression is ongoing terrorism which is
very costly in terms of economics time and money.

And we must mention also the fact that the last Great Depression of the
1920s was favored to happen because of the inherent snags of the
economic systems in the world at that time-- German reparations to
France and the allies; no safety brakes in USA stockmarket or even a
social-security-net or a Fed Reserve oversight. The
economic-system-snags of 2004 comparable to the snags of 1920s is this
global-freetrade of job outsourcing to overpopulated countries and the
fact that much of the world oil is located in terrorist countries.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.archimedesplutonium.com
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
whole entire Universe is just one big atom where dots
of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies

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