Mexico Bronco: the beheadment of a government
From: Fabrizio J. Bonsignore (fbonsignore_at_beethoven.com)
Date: 09/13/04
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Date: 13 Sep 2004 04:14:21 -0700
Back in the days when Salinas was trying to lead Mexico to development
and actually managed not only to convince the USA and Canada to sign
the NAFTA but also to create an environment of confidence in the
future, the reactionary sectors of that most discriminating society
sensed the danger of losing privileges to a growing and prosperous
middle class thriving outside the usual channels of power of the
cacicazgos and the oligarchy of the 300 families and decided to stop
the salinist project. The result almost unnoticed was, first, the
assassination of Polo Uscanga, young attorney who was a strong
candidate to renovate the judiciary system; then, the assassination of
Ruiz Massieu, who was going to be almost certainly the head of
Congress, and finally the assassination of presidential candidate
Colosio, virtual winner of the future elections under the PRI regime.
It was expected of the next government to continue the progressive
development of a true market economy in Mexico and to follow the
salinist project into the future, with a more noticeable social
content. Yet a whole government was destroyed even before it ascended
to office. The result was the election of Dr Zedillo and the almost
immediate December Error which led to the dissapearance of 80 billion
dollars from the Mexican financial markets and the catastrophic
negative supply shock, the unexpected devaluation of the peso, anchor
of the whole model, which created the most (for many) deep depression
registered in that country. As a result not only the social costs
increased more than the spent political capital of the ruling party
could afford, but also allowed the old power relationships based on
poverty and ignorance to strengthen and instead of the expected
redistribution of wealth what was observed was an increase in wealth
concentration, particularly after the abuses in the banking and
financial systems that originated the chain of frauds that culminated
in the stock crash of 97. The PRI lost power and finally after 70
years a new party won the elections. Yet it is still uncertain whether
this cahnges will actually lead to greater development. Mexico missed
in a depression the years of the explosive growth of the internet and
the new e-Mexico initiative seems ineffective to bridge the gap. The
new government represents some of the most traditional sectors of
society, the Mexican extreme right, and though it is generally
considered positive for a country to have political diversity, in a
system used to el acarreo (all together), the torta and tamal
operations (mass bribes to support or deny support to candidates) and
the chronical ignorance of a people used to the cultura Televisa
(bread and circus), plus the concentration of the old PRI segments
and the also chronic frustration of the left leave doubts as to the
economic and politic future of that country. The emergence of
satellite parties, more interested in getting govermmental funds than
in representing the people, while at the same time bringing an
opportunity to politicians without future in the old regime, also
point to several pressures and tension that undoubtedly will make the
next elections even more important and future defining than the so
announced Cambio (change), which apparently til now has been unable to
produce real results, but seems more like a constant struggle to
convince the people that all goes well without providing the great
expectations that the Salinist regime brought about. It must be
brought to attention that the chiapanecan rebels are still active
though keeping a low level, and apparently other sectors have taken a
more activist stance. The next elections will prove to be the key to
the future of a country that has lost its political identity to pursue
a model internationally acclaimed but that not necessarily conforms to
the character and the level of instruction of the people. Fact is
police corruption and insecurity are increasing more than decreasing,
and the right has, though not readily obvious, a historical vocation
toward dictatorship measures. Will it become another 70 years party
rule? Will it revert to the fractured PRI to grab the occasion to
reaffirm itself in power even aggresively? Maybe a new, more
progressive party will be able to grow and lead the country to a new
redefinition of its goals and its position in a world where oil will
be increasingly less important and water more and more an issue? Or
will the left be able to reform itself in a world where socialism as
was knows is all but dead and new approaches to a social handling of
the economy are called for? Will al the states react with the sme
level of maturity? Or maybe the historical fractures will lead to a
new, unforseeable future? Time will tell...
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