Re: Mexico Bronco: the beheadment of a government

From: zerge (zerge_at_hotmail.com)
Date: 09/14/04 

Date: 13 Sep 2004 21:41:17 -0700

This is a caricature of Mexico's recent history.
Allow me to comment on it, since I am Mexican and actually KNOW about
the economics and politics of my country:

> Back in the days when Salinas was trying to lead Mexico to development
> and actually managed not only to convince the USA and Canada to sign
> the NAFTA but also to create an environment of confidence in the
> future, the reactionary sectors of that most discriminating society
> sensed the danger of losing privileges to a growing and prosperous
> middle class thriving outside the usual channels of power of the
> cacicazgos and the oligarchy of the 300 families and decided to stop
> the salinist project. The result almost unnoticed was, first, the
> assassination of Polo Uscanga, young attorney who was a strong
> candidate to renovate the judiciary system; then, the assassination of
> Ruiz Massieu, who was going to be almost certainly the head of
> Congress, and finally the assassination of presidential candidate
> Colosio, virtual winner of the future elections under the PRI regime.

<sigh> These assasinations where NOT part of a complex,
well-orchestrated complot, as depicted here. They where done within
the context of petty intra-party fighting for control. As an example,
Uscanga was assasinated in an attempt to control public transportation
in Mexico City.

> It was expected of the next government to continue the progressive
> development of a true market economy in Mexico and to follow the
> salinist project into the future, with a more noticeable social
> content. Yet a whole government was destroyed even before it ascended
> to office. The result was the election of Dr Zedillo and the almost
> immediate December Error which led to the dissapearance of 80 billion
> dollars from the Mexican financial markets and the catastrophic
> negative supply shock, the unexpected devaluation of the peso, anchor
> of the whole model, which created the most (for many) deep depression
> registered in that country.

Unexpected? We could see it coming from MILES. After the assasination
of Colosio and the Zapatista revolt, investors got nervous and started
to take their money out of Mexico as fast as they could. It was quite
the financial stampede. Salinas could not afford to leave his
presidency in the middle of a peso devaluation, so he decided to
defend it with our reserves. He thought he had enough dollars to pull
it off. He miscalculated. Reserves runned out, and the peso, instead
of going through a slow devaluation, collapsed in a few weeks. This is
the Sesame Street version of events that lead to the crisis of 1995. A
STUPID miscalculation.

As a result not only the social costs
> increased more than the spent political capital of the ruling party
> could afford, but also allowed the old power relationships based on
> poverty and ignorance to strengthen and instead of the expected
> redistribution of wealth what was observed was an increase in wealth
> concentration, particularly after the abuses in the banking and
> financial systems that originated the chain of frauds that culminated
> in the stock crash of 97. The PRI lost power and finally after 70
> years a new party won the elections. Yet it is still uncertain whether
> this cahnges will actually lead to greater development.

It already HAS led to greater development. Fox's government has
brought unprecedented macroeconomic stability. And as any economist
worth his/her salt, the foundation for economic development is
macroeconomic stability: low inflation, stable exchange rate, low
interest rates, low government deficit. Fox has achieved all this
through fiscal discipline. Most Mexicans (AND Americans) do not
perceive the HUGE benefit for the population that low inflation
represents. The purchasing power of our wages has remained stable and
reasonably high for a long time now that our inflation is about 4% per
year, compared to 150% back in the 80s.
Also, there is a silent revolution going on in the construction
industry in Mexico. Low interest rates have sparked an explosion in
construction credits. In the last four years, over one million
families have received government backed loans to buy or build their
houses. Again, any economist knows that the base for a wealthy middle
class is land and house ownership, which leads to mortages, thus more
consumption and entrepreneurship.
There is also a silent revolution in retail. Walmart alone has 667
stores in Mexico and growing. Mexican consumers have a wide selection
of affordable products thanks to Walmart, Carrefour, Comercial
Mexicana, Gigante, Aurrera, and all the other large retailers, not to
mention hundreds of thousands of jobs thanks to them.
There are many other examples in other industries.

 Mexico missed
> in a depression the years of the explosive growth of the internet and
> the new e-Mexico initiative seems ineffective to bridge the gap.

Explosive growth of the internet? That was paper money last time I
checked. And if you ACTUALLY investigate the causes of the phenomenal
increase in American productivity in that period, you will discover,
to your surprise, that it was fueled by retail wholesalers, pressured
by Walmart's competition. Yes, you read me right. Go do your homework
and find out.
e-Mexico? What's THAT? Oh! you mean the PUBLICITY STUNT that Fox
organized! :)
Most Mexicans have never heard of it. I haven't heard much either, and
I read a lot. It's bs. You can safely ignore it.

 The
> new government represents some of the most traditional sectors of
> society, the Mexican extreme right, and though it is generally
> considered positive for a country to have political diversity, in a
> system used to el acarreo (all together), the torta and tamal
> operations (mass bribes to support or deny support to candidates) and
> the chronical ignorance of a people used to the cultura Televisa
> (bread and circus),

This Televisa thing is pretty much over. Now it faces fierce
competition fron TV Azteca, plus cable and sat penetration is ever
increasing. Not to mention internet.

 plus the concentration of the old PRI segments
> and the also chronic frustration of the left leave doubts as to the
> economic and politic future of that country. The emergence of
> satellite parties, more interested in getting govermmental funds than
> in representing the people, while at the same time bringing an
> opportunity to politicians without future in the old regime, also

Small parties are inconsecuential. Convergencia, PT, and Verde
Ecologista are very minor forces. Other small parties come an go
pretty fast, like Mexico Posible y PSN (or whatever they where
called). New legislation is being pushed in Congress to raise the bar
on creating new parties.

> point to several pressures and tension that undoubtedly will make the
> next elections even more important and future defining than the so
> announced Cambio (change), which apparently til now has been unable to
> produce real results, but seems more like a constant struggle to
> convince the people that all goes well without providing the great
> expectations that the Salinist regime brought about.

Mexico has been at true democracy for 4 years only. It takes much
longer to bake a true republic. So cut us some slack ok? Did the US
come out of the oven all ready to work awesomely as a country? No it
did not, it went through a maturing period, and it is STILL not
perfect, even though it is a 228 year old democracy.

It must be
> brought to attention that the chiapanecan rebels are still active
> though keeping a low level, and apparently other sectors have taken a
> more activist stance.

Good! We WANT them to take an activist stance! Welcome! Just don't
bring along the AK-47s or you'll get your ass kicked by American-made
huey choppers.

The next elections will prove to be the key to
> the future of a country that has lost its political identity to pursue
> a model internationally acclaimed but that not necessarily conforms to
> the character and the level of instruction of the people. Fact is
> police corruption and insecurity are increasing more than decreasing,
> and the right has, though not readily obvious, a historical vocation
> toward dictatorship measures.

Dictatorial right?? In Mexico?? LOL. :)
That's all I have to say.

 Will it become another 70 years party
> rule?

It cannot. We have build a very strong Federal Electorate Institue
(IFE), which is internationally recognized as very effective in
organinzing clean elections. I am willing to bet that now Mexico's
federal elections are more clean AND fair than US elections. (Chads,
anyone?)

Will it revert to the fractured PRI to grab the occasion to
> reaffirm itself in power even aggresively? Maybe a new, more
> progressive party will be able to grow and lead the country to a new
> redefinition of its goals and its position in a world where oil will
> be increasingly less important and water more and more an issue? Or
> will the left be able to reform itself in a world where socialism as
> was knows is all but dead and new approaches to a social handling of
> the economy are called for? Will al the states react with the sme
> level of maturity? Or maybe the historical fractures will lead to a
> new, unforseeable future? Time will tell...

The person who wrote this posting has partial knowledge about the
internal workings of my country. And as we all know, partial knowledge
is more dangerous than no knowledge, because it creates the illusion
of REAL knowledge. And it's only that: an illusion.
Now. Would you care to opine on the internal political working of,
say, Turkey? :)

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