Re: Economic `Armageddon' predicted

From: sam fisher (sam000fisher_at_yahoooo.com)
Date: 11/26/04 

Date: Fri, 26 Nov 2004 23:58:50 GMT

"Terje Johan Abrahamsen" <me@privacy.net> wrote in message
news:30pl5hF2l403rU1@uni-berlin.de...
>
> "zerge" <zerge@hotmail.com> wrote in message
> news:f0a1621c.0411261304.40d4c199@posting.google.com...
> > "Terje Johan Abrahamsen" <terjej@mailandnews.com> wrote in message
> news:<30mcdtF32mo28U1@uni-berlin.de>...
> > > "Werner Hetzner" <whetzner@mac.com> wrote in message
> > > news:41A5F663.90108@mac.com...
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > sam fisher wrote:
> > > >
> > > > >You seriously think that "consumption" is an esoteric art locked in
> by
> > > > >americans thank to a special national gene, the "consumer gene"?
> > > > >True, China would feel a shock if the dollar fells off the cliff,
> that's
> > > why
> > > > >they are fighting it so vigourously. But most likely scenario is a
> > > prolonged
> > > > >soft landing of the dollar over the next few years, nothing
dramatic
> > > > >(hopefully!) and at the end of the tunnel Asia and Europe will
emerge
> as
> > > the
> > > > >new economic "superpowers" while the US population will be
> empoverished,
> > > > >radicalized and desperate. You can thank this to 20 years of
> republican
> > > > >voodoo economics and christian fundamentalist education.
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Don't bet on an Emerging Europe because they are worse off than
> > > > we.Welfare state economics has that effect. Check out the
unemployment
> > > > numbers. Also pay attention to rising political tensions - even in
> > > > Sweden. Demand for more welfare state benefits on someone else's
dime
> > > > and a shrinking economy has that effect.
> > > >
> > >
> > > Funny you mention Sweden. If Sweden had been a state in the US, it
would
> > > have been the poorest. West Virginia the median familyincome 280 000
> SKR. In
> > > Sweden the median is 276k.
> >
> > Are you adjusting for purchasing power parity?
>
> If we bring purchasing power parity into the equation the picture gets
even
> dimmer for Europe.
>
> We can for example use the BigMac index from the Economist.
> http://www.oanda.com/products/bigmac/bigmac.shtml
>
> An american pay in average (2003) 2,65 dollar for a BigMac. A Swede have
to
> pay 4.45 dollar. Nearly twice as much, while the income is way below. West
> Virginia is the state in the US that score the lowest, but can still buy
> twice as much as the average Swede.....
>
> (http://www.finfacts.com/costofliving4.htm). The cost of living index
shows
> Oslo at 130 while Stockholm is at 109. New York is the most expensive in
the
> US, and has a value of 100. Cleveland has an index of 78 for comparison.
>
> In other words, if price index is included, the difference would be a lot
> larger. In material standard of living, the US is way ahead.....

That's a joke.
How about Idaho?
How about the 41 million uninsured?
How about the phony unemployment figures (officially 5.6%). 2001-2004 labor
force participation rates indicate that a more realistic value is 7.4%
How about the $7trillion on the book deficit?

US is an economic trainwreck. Official economic indicators such as CPI are
spurious, total forgeries - I saw better ones in the Soviet block. Look at
inflation and CPI numbers. Don't tell me there is no inflation in the US
when every food item in my local supermarket went up 40%+ the last 4 years.
Yet when CPI numbers in 96 started to show this fact big Al came out saying
that CPI overstated consumer inflation by about 1%. Because supposedly
americans are shopping in discount stores, and made up other phony stories
why the number has to be "corrected". Since CPI is a useless economic
indicator we can't tell how well average US consumer is doing, but you can
bet: much worse than the numbers show.

Sure, if you lower that number by about 1% that in effect will reset
indexation formulas for government benefits and taxation as well. This also
reduces the visible federal debt. It's a clever accounting gimmic, but it
does make official US figures totally useless.

One of the funniest such phony accounting trick I remember from Bush's 2003
economic forecast which argued that McDonalds jobs were "factory" jobs since
they required light assembly skills ;) No mention about the benefits and
average payrate of those jobs.

Again, think Soviet Union: the system became so orvellian in the US that you
really have to travel to get a sense of economic realities!

>

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