Re: China GDP data corrupt [working paper]

From: Yu (yugaung_at_yahoo.com)
Date: 01/21/05 

Date: 20 Jan 2005 17:02:04 -0800

Economic growth in India and China are very real.
Writing books with sensational titles help sales.
Gordon Chang published his book " The coming collapse of China" in
2001. He predicted China's collapse in 5-10 years, enough time to tens
of thousands of his books :). Li Teng Hui of Taiwan was very fond of
quoting him in Taiwan. Lots of idiots in Taiwan believe him.

Since 2001 China has grown from strength to strength.
China now consumes 50% of the world's cement and steel.
China has become 2nd largest importer of oil.
On the negative aspect, China has acute power shortages in 22 provinces
in 2004.
http://english.people.com.cn/200402/24/eng20040224_135742.shtml

raylopez99 wrote:
> Out of curiosity I computed using energy as a variable some other
> estimated GDPs for countries other than China, to see how their
energy
> computed GDPs compared with their reported GDPs (as reported on the
CIA
> World Factbook, at http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ )
>
> Here is what I found, using only Euro-land/JP energy statistics:
>
> India's GDP is inflated by the reported figure of up to around 35%
>
> Brazil, Indonesia, and Mexico's GDPs are accurate as reported.
>
>
> RAW DATA:
>
> India:
> 12.8 QBTU energy consumed * 6.11 mil. Person /QBTU (Euroland) *
> $25k/person = $1.955 trillion (computed GDP) versus $3.033 trillion
> reported, so Indian GDP is inflated by perhaps 35%.
> Note "x" = 1 here, assuming no 'communist style' inefficiency.
>
> Indonesia:
> 4.63 QBTU energy consumed * 6.11 mil Person/ QBTU (Euroland) *
> $25k/person = $707 billion (computed GDP) versus $756 billion
reported,
> so Indonesian GDP is not inflated. Again, "x" = 1
>
> Mexico:
> 6.0 QBTU energy consumed * 6.11 mil. Person /QBTU (Euroland) *
> $25k/person = $917 billion versus $941 billion reported, so Mexican
GDP
> is not inflated. "x" = 1
>
> Brazil:
> 8.78 QBTU energy consumed * 6.11 mil. Person /QBTU (Euroland) *
> $25k/person = $1.341 trillion (computed GDP) versus $1.375 trillion
> reported, so Brazilian GDP is not inflated. "x" = 1

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