Re: China will replace US as India's largest trading partner

From: Bill (xxx_at_yy.zz)
Date: 02/10/05 

Date: Thu, 10 Feb 2005 00:37:59 GMT

"Hindian" <hindian@jaihindhindhind.com> wrote in message
news:oo7l01l1q9ee481us8pnkqan5lneu8jg2e@4ax.com...
> what strategic implications will this have? while the above could
> turn out ot be true, the reverse (India being the biggest trading
> partner of china) is unlikely to be true.
>

Nothing, except this is a stepping stone on the road of China and India
growing at a faster rate than the US which may have great strategic
implications 20 years from now. Well I take that back a little. It is also a
sign they are getting along better.

> It should be noted that US has far more companies operating in India
> than China and that is not accounted in trade figures.
>

I don't think that is really important. IBM, for example, may set up a
daughter company in India, but for trade purposes I think that is considered
an Indian entity. However, at some point, there may be repatriation of profits
or infusions of capital. There are obviously also techinical exchanges etc.

Bill

> -----------------
>
> NEW DELHI: While everyone is talking about the competition between the
> Asian giants, China is fast replacing the US as India's leading trade
> partner.
>
> If growth remains at current levels, India-China trade could cross
> $17bn by end of 2004-05. In contrast, Indo-US trade has grown by just
> over 23 per cent in Apr-Aug 2004.
>
> "It's a stunning development," enthuses Ficci president Onkar Kanwar.
> "Our view is that China is poised to emerge as the largest trading
> partner in two to three years. And this is just the beginning."
>
> Ficci sees potential $30bn bilateral trade between the countries in
> 2010. Many believe that's being unduly conservative; growth would have
> to slow considerably for bilateral trade between the Asian giants to
> remain restricted to $30bn five years from now.
> "It is a positive trend and we strongly believe India and China will
> be largest trading partners," says N Srinivasan, director general,
> CII. "In all our global industry interactions, it is no more China or
> India. It is now China and India. In the coming years we see it as
> China with India."
>
> Assocham feels while trade will increase between India and China, US
> will be major partner for both. Bilateral trade between China and US
> hovers around $210bn. China exports $179bn of products to US and
> imports goods worth $31bn from it.
>
> CII thinks India and US would move closer in knowledge co-operation,
> hi-tech, new services. Others feel, emerging development is wake-up
> call to US. "India and US have to move faster in strategic thinking,"
> says Amit Mitra, secretary general, Ficci.

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