Re: A Big Story, Missed (Samuelson)

The Trucker wrote:
"Les Cargill" <lNOcargill@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:hyOIe.36279$iG6.26170@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
<snip>

http://www.x-rates.com/d/EUR/USD/hist2005.html

See the Euro. See the Euro fall. Fall, Euro, fall.
A stronger dollar would make our trade balance much
worse than it already is.



Well, now....  It depends on whether the devaluation in
the dollar is _real_ inflation or the price of hoola hoops
is _real_ inflation.  But, of course, inflation is actually
(according to neocons like Greespan) a rise in wages.


Depends on which version of Greenspan. FWIW, Drucker
has said that labor isn't a serious component of cost
anymore. His argument is that significant work now
requires a lot of capital, and that the delta
for manhours isn't a hard constraint.

The price of land and food and energy can all rise as
they will so long as the serfs get the weenie and wages
continue to slide.   So long as wages deteriorate then
the inflation monster is under control.  Perhaps you
haven't heard it said in exactly this way, but it is
exactly what Greenspan and others say over and
over again.


There is some truth to this. What really happened
is that certain classes of computer applications have
reduced the number of man hours per widget.

Wages for the same task have dropped over
the years in real terms. But the shape of
people's task load changes to adapt to this.


I don't argue that inflation isn't "under control" (as
inflation is defined as a rise in wages).  I wonder
why any productive person would WANT inflation
to be low and "under control".



I dunno if I've said it here often, but a tad more
inflation wouldn't scare me in the least. But it
became a bugbear in the '70s, and people reflexively
want to hear that inflation is low.


loss of US labor
markets,


Either there is a metric which shows this at 5% -
roughly the turnover noise figure plus a percent
or two - or there isn't.



By this sort of reasoning there is no unemployment
problem and just as in the case of low inflation
the numbers are probably not all that skewed.


If there is an unemployment problem, how do we
find that out?

Just think, if we all had jobs working 90 hours
per week to make sure that Gates had several
jets and several yacts then there would be
zero unemloyment and no inflation.  Neocon
perfection at last.  The Egyptian kings did
this long ago.


Oh, bosh. Nobody serious is working 90 hours
a week. I did when in school, and a couple
of critical times since then, but "hours
per week" has become some sort of macho
thing.

There's a class of supercharged guys (
they're always guys ) who do five or four
year bursts of 90 hour weeks, then they
cash out. Long work hours are more an
affectation meant to indicate commitment
than a fact of nature.


*Is* there an army of forgotten chronically unemployed,
studying the Unabomber Manifesto out there?



As a matter of fact, a lot of us are more "employed"
than we ever were.  I used to work about 30 - 40
hours a week and now I work 80 or more.  But my
wife no longer works and I suppose that this might
account for the lower workforce participation.  She
still, however, does more than her share to support
our economy.  Still pends and spends.


I thought there were regulations
prohibiting that sort of thing for drivers.

Is this *work* work, or just time-in-the-chair ( might
be the same thing in your case ).


and points to superficial indicators to support a
bogus theory that all is hunky dory.... it isn't.


Then why are there no professional economists who
can coherently make a case for this?



Because they are paralyzed by Marx and have a
terrible fear of being called a "socialist" or a
"communist".


A serious economist should be able to quote Marx
all he wants to, so long as it's the parts that
aren't patently bogus. Marx was a mid 19th century
guy - the world changed a hell of a lot. Some
of how it changed was due to his influence.

The guy who scares people is Malthus, and
he's hard to defend.

The right has done a very good job
of demonizing everything but rightard neo-econ.


I see an awful lot of egregious "left-tard"ism,
too. Point is there's plenty of mud to go 'round.

Anyone who sings off key will be attacked
immediatly due to the joint sense of self
preservation.  No one wants to look like a fool
so they all are fools together.  I am reminded
of a quote from Ben Franklin: "We must all
hang together or we most certainly will
hang separately".


Krugman
spends most of his time with his foot in his
mouth.



Examples please.  Current stuff please.


Oh, where to start. Just Google it up and
read carefully. He simply doesn't have the
impact he once did.



The probability that they're all bought off
seems pretty low. Has Karl Rove ordered them
all asassinated? :)



They all get paid to be very much in the corner of
the well to do.  That has always been the case.
It is not some new thing.



To be fair, the best parts of economics *do* favor
the well to do, for the simple reason that economics
that makes good prediction will appear to,
if not "do" do.

If this cannot be conclusively
shown, then what are we to make of that?



How would you "show" it if  "show it" means data
and they control all the data?  Logic and reason
will "show it" very easily, but that is rejected.


How can they control all the data? The data
are an independent input into the formulae.

And the sort of logic and reason that show it
are extremely sensitive to initial assumption.


An economist who could prove this would
have a best seller on his hands. Where is it?



If not for the fact that I am not a degreed "economist"
and the fact that my writing is poor I could have a best
seller?  It's almost enough to make me get my
brain washed :<)


--
Les Cargill
.

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