Re: Economic Rent in Terms of Risk Free Interest Rate
- From: Les Cargill <lNOcargill@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sat, 24 Sep 2005 19:52:03 GMT
ruetheday@xxxxxxxxxx wrote:
Employment isn't labor. There is significant political interest in maintaining rates of employment, ala Bismarck.
So you contend that most of the people employed today are engaged in unproductive make-work engineered by political forces that in no way benefits the employer?
In vast number. Most of this make-work is disguised as regulation or compliance. Some of it is simple headcount obsession. Some of it is just bad workflow engineering.
Technological progress and automation do not eliminate the need for a labor force. We've heard that prediction for centuries now and it never comes to pass.
It doesn't converge to zero, but year by year, automation is an increasing fraction of production.
We don't have to know the exact point of convergence, just whether or not the slope is positive or negative.
The *relative* effect of LVT would be that of a subsidy to labor, in a climate of declining demand. There's not a clear pattern of what happens then, but one possibility is a sort of positive feedback cycle, with cost increasing rapidly. The other is a negative feedback cycle, with labor losing any market value at all.
We don't know what happens with LVT except in fast-growth situations, like Hong Kong or Japan, over times when those are relevant.
> And I highly doubt that the existence of most
jobs in the economy are due to "regulation, compliance, headcount obsession, and bad workflow engineering". Well, perhaps the latter, but as a consultant I'm biased. ;-)
If not most, a great many. I've worked for two companies in the past where less than ten percent of the company actually *did* anything. Those are doubtless extreme examples.
It, of course, depends. How do you think the last five years' magickal "productivity gains" happened? This fraction has been reduced.
Have those productivity gains evaporated as the labor market recovered over the past couple of years?
I don't think so, but it's not widely reported. A very good question. And *has* the job market actually recovered?
Please note I said *marginal* factor - this according to Drucker as a direct component of COGS.
Perhaps in the modern industrial world, the traditional accounting measure of COGS underrepresents labor's contribution to output. IOW, in an environment where most workers are not involved in the _direct_ production of widgets or whatever else their employer happens to sell, the traditional classification of their labor as "overhead" isn't entirely accurate because it does not recognize the fact that their labor does in some way allow the company to produce and sell more.
Mismeasure is always a possibility, but from years of watching people work, I beleive the claim that labor is a declining fraction.
The way that labor is employed has changed, but the need for labor has not.
That's also very true. Ironically, job growth has been strongest in trades and stuff related to the housing boom.
Again, the metric I'm using is human labor input in units of manhours per widget produced. *That* fraction still declines.
-- Les Cargill
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