UK's refusal of Euro because of George Soros?
- From: "Brablo" <gestureofrespect@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 4 Oct 2006 08:46:11 -0700
became immediately famous when he sold short more than $10bn worth ofFrom Wikipedia: """On Black Wednesday (September 16, 1992), Soros
pounds, profiting from the Bank of England's reluctance to either raise
its interest rates to levels comparable to those of other European
Exchange Rate Mechanism countries or to float its currency. Finally,
the Bank of England was forced to withdraw the currency out of the
European Exchange Rate Mechanism and to devalue the pound sterling, and
Soros earned an estimated US$ 1.1 billion in the process. He was dubbed
"the man who broke the Bank of England." The Times October 26, 1992,
Monday quoted Soros as saying: "Our total position by Black Wednesday
had to be worth almost $10 billion. We planned to sell more than that.
In fact, when Norman Lamont said just before the devaluation that he
would borrow nearly $15 billion to defend sterling, we were amused
because that was about how much we wanted to sell." """
It seems to me that the British were on the path of accepting the Euro
currency, however, their currency got "broke" due to George Soros. I
am not sure about this, however. I have a few questions regarding
George Soros' '92 transactions.
1. I know that he shorted ~$10B worth of sterlings. How did this
"break" the pound sterling? I'm thinking this is how it would break the
currency: If I were to short $10B worth of a stock, the transaction
involves selling the stock, which makes the prices go down. So another
words, any time you aggressively short something - and shorting can be
highly leveraged - you create an immediate depression in the value of
the underlying asset. Of course, the currency would appreciate once
the shorting position must be "neutralized" (or the position is
reversed).
2. How did George Soros and Drunkenmiller anticipate that the currency
was going to get devalued? Using their critierias, is the USD likely
to get devalued like it did in the '70s? What methods/metrics did they
use to ascertain this?
3. Is the reason why the British haven't adopted the Euro traced to
Soros' doing?
.
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