Re: Dearth of workers

On Nov 27, 7:23 am, kbrot...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
Demographers say the Baby Boom ("boomers") generation started in 1946
and ended in 1964. That means the earliest generation of boomers is 61
years old today and poised for retirement. The average nationwide
retirement age is 62, so 2008 will be the beginning of a long wave of
retirements from the work force. In California, that wave has already
started to hit the public employee system where the average retirement
age is only 60 years old (Sacramento Bee, May 25, 2007, page D1). For
boomers, the peak birth year was 1957, according to the federal
statistics (see CDC link below), so 2019 looks like the top of the
boomers' retirement wave.

All this foretells a potential drop in future labor force
participation rates (about 66 percent today) in many areas of the U.S.
Since fewer workers means lower production, many communities are
likely to feel the impacts of slower job growth, lower economic
growth, and higher wages for skilled workers. In fact, the long-term
growth rate in workers is dismally low in some areas. In Los Angeles
county, for example, demographers predict that population will grow by
18 percent from 2007 to 2035, but the working age population will grow
by only five percent by 2035. That's a forecast for a major economic
slowdown unless people stay in the work force longer or immigration
policies change. No doubt higher wage rates will induce some workers
to work more years, but that may not be enough to make up the dearth
of future workers.

- Kurt

k...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx://casualeconomist.typepad.com/

Further reading:

Bureau of Labor Statisticshttp://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet?data_tool=latest_...

California Department of Finance (demographic data files)http://www.dof.ca.gov/HTML/DEMOGRAP/Data/DRUdatafiles.php

CDC birth datahttp://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statab/t941x01.pdf

thanks...the stats were appreciated.


Phil scott
.

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