Re: Who is buying dollars, or is the US economyt coming to a grinding halt ?

Michael Coburn <mikcob@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote
Rod Speed wrote

<reams of your puerile *** flushed where it belongs>

Michael Coburn <mikcob@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote
Rod Speed wrote
Michael Coburn <mikcob@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote
Rob Dekker wrote

I'm new here, so forgive my ignorance. Why is the dollar getting so strong ?

I can only say that in a worldwide panic (and that is what we have)
people seek safe harbor. The housing bubble came and went,
the oil/commodity bubble the same. All the players are putting
their franks and euros and pesos and yen into dollars because
they have no safer harbor. The dollar stinks, but it stinks less.

Mindlessly silly. If that was what was happening, they'd be putting
their money in the countrys that havent seen any banks imploding,
and they clearly arent doing that.

You're just another fool that can spout the economic jargon, but
doesnt have a fucking clue about the basics.

This is really stupid.

We'll see...

The moron believes that the currency is actually tied to the bank.

Wrong, as always.

The dollars are held in ALL THE BANKS.

Irrelevant to which country's banks they'd be putting their money in if they wanted safety.

Where the dollars are stored is not related to their exchange value.

No one ever said it was, fool.

That was a comment on your 'safe harbor' claim.

The oil is still traded in DOLLARS.

Doesnt explain the big sag in the USD and the current improvement in its value.

I was not actually attempting to explain the sag in the value of the dollar

You have to explain the sag AND the rise.

caused by imperialism and the recent gains in value caused by
the knowledge that the *@()#$#^@& imperialism is going to stop.

Pathetic.

The gains are also being caused by the lunatics in other countries trying to save
their slave economies that have been dependent on American consumption.

That explains the USD/Euro relativitys does it ?

The notion of "leisure" seems to be some sort of Satanic
thing that simply cannot be accepted by the masses.

Completely off with the fucking fairys now.

The fact that the producing countries can just kick back and relax is just not religiously
possible for them to contemplate. The same disease seems to infect America.

If and when there is a different "reserve currency" and if and
when oil is traded in something other than dollars on a world
wide basis, then you might have some sort of leg to stand
on as you criticize my understanding of the fundamentals.

Never ever could bull*** its way out of a wet paper bag.

There will be a much larger commodity bubble.

There in no commodity bubble.

The reason commodity prices have dropped significantly is because there
is quite a bit of evidence that the credit/liquidity crunch will produce at
least a world wide recession and maybe even a full depression.

The oil price as measured in dollars has produced a destabilization in the real world economy.

Doesnt explain the big runnup in commodity prices and then the drop in those.

Money was created in the big "trade in" of homes that resulted from the 1997
Republican tax giveaways and the adjustments that rewarded speculation and
monopolization as opposed to production (decrease in capital gains taxes).

Have fun explaining how come we saw a big runup in the price of houses right
thruout the first world where that republican stuff was completely irrelevant.

The real reason for the big runup was the very low interest rates.

That money was immediately used to blow a tech stock bubble

Have fun explaining how come we saw a tech stock bubble right thruout
the first world where that republican stuff was completely irrelevant.

and then that and even more was created to blow the housing bubble.

The real reason for the housing bubble was the low interest rates and
the fact that so many had got burnt in the tech stock bubble bursting.

That money fled to commodities as the real estate bubble burst.

Like hell it did. The real reason for the big hike in commodity
prices was the big increase in demand for oil, particularly by
china and india, and the massive building program that china
did that increased demand for steel etc quite substantially.

Unlike silly *** like McMansions and tech stock prices a run up
in the price of commodities such as oil have a _REAL_ and direct
impact on economies world wide. The result of the run up was
that the neoclassical nincompoops want to label "demand destruction".

Didnt happen. There was no destruction of demand at all.

But prior to that, here in the USA we had a tech stock bubble
and then a much more severe housing bubble and that is a
very large part of what caused the commodity bubble.

There is no commodity bubble.

And denial is a river in Africa.

Never ever could bull*** its way out of a wet paper bag.

Unlike the silliness of the prices of shares of stock and the
ridiculous run up in real estate prices, the rise in oil prices
had/has a major effect on the cost of actual production.

The oil price affects a hell of lot more than just the cost of actual production.

Thank you for actually adding support for my general thesis.

Never ever could bull*** its way out of a wet paper bag.

Such was the economic "shock" that caused the current slowdown/panic.

Thanks for that completely superfluous proof that you have
never ever had a fucking clue about anything at all, ever.

The ridiculous oil prices were caused by money seeking safe harbor after the housing bubble

Pity the oil price peaked LONG before the housing bubble went bang.

The housing bubble went bang in late 2006,

Like hell it did.

early 2007. The oil peaked in July 2008.

And had run up a hell of a long way before that.

and now the economies of the world have actually been damaged.

Not by the oil prices they havent.

And denial is a river in Africa.

Never ever could bull*** its way out of a wet paper bag.

The money has no place else to run.

Thanks for that completely superfluous proof that you have
never ever had a fucking clue about anything at all, ever.

We have people and institutions with more money than they
can find any use for and they will simply keep it; nice and
safe in a true bank that does nothing other than store money.

And only a fool would try to pick one of those in the US currently.

Anyone with a clue might go for US treasurys instead.

The Treasury is not offering any decent interest rates

They dont need to to provide a safe haven for that cash.

and should not offer any such rates. There is plenty of money out
there and that money needs to find places to go in the real economies.

No one with a clue is interested currently. They just want a safe haven for their cash.

Inflation will eat it all up if it is not invested.

At nothing like the rate at which it will get eaten up if you invest it in
operations that have no future if we see another great depression or worse.

That is exactly as it should be. And if it can't be invested at a profit then too damned bad.

No one who is buying US treasurys gives a flying red *** about what you think they should be doing.

Amidst all the financial turmoil in the US banking system, US
government sticking itself deeper than ever into debt, the
nosediving stock market, and the prospects of a stalling economy,
you would think that few people abroad have much confidence in
the US dollar.

Still, the dollar rose 6% in the time since the *** hit the fan
in September and even more since it's low point in July. It even
rose 2% in the last two days. The US dollar is now stronger than
it has been since Jan 2007. Oil prices (linked to the dollar)
drop accordingly. The Euro drops the most, but the Yen seems
closer linked to the dollar.

What on Earth is happening ?
I'd like to know if this is a short-term effect, or if there is
some structural effect happening.

One explanation is that foreign investors (Chineese or Saudies?)
are buying up dollars by the billions, but that seems bizarre.
They for sure don't invest in the US stock market, nor are they
buying realestate. This seems to affect only the currency
exchange rates, and the international commodity prices, so it
must be a cash flow issue. What reason would foreigners have to
buy cash dollars ?

I had macro-economics in high school, but that's a long time
ago. I have forgotten what the relationships are between
currency exchange rates, inflationary and deflationionary
effects, interest rates and debt/assert ratios.

So I have to rely on common sense.

The only common sense explanation for such a steep rise in the
dollar in such a short period of turmoil seems to be that
possibly the US economy is actually stalling. When businesses do
not have short-term money, they will start by reducing their
inventory. Just cancel an order for new (foreign) goods, or stop
buying oil (and rely on the short-term reserves). That means
that dollars will not flow out of the US as fast as it normally
does, which means that from abroad it looks like the US is not
consuming anything. That means that there will be a shortage of
dollars abroad, which means that the dollar rises in value.

Does anyone have a better explanation ?

There is no shortage of dollars. The Fed can, and will (if the Fed does
not wish to be stormed as the Bastille) monetize a lot more debt at
ridiculously low interest rates. But so too will the foreign banks.

More utterly mindless silly ***.

The entire world has been indulging in "stupidity economics" for the last 30 years.

Yeah, yeah, and only you have seen the light eh ?

I never went into the darkness....

You've always had your *** in your hand.

Thats why you're now completely blind.

"stupidity economics" is called "supply side economics"
so as to appear to be something other than stupid.

A hell of a lot of the real world hasnt been into supply side economics, fool.

Yet the world's largest economy HAS been.

Irrelevant to the rest of the world.

And denial is a river in Africa.

Never ever could bull*** its way out of a wet paper bag.

It is has been aided and abetted by neoclassical non-economists.
The reality is that the dollar denominated assets of the world are
horrendously overvalued as measured in dollars and in labor. And
the only rational cure is a much further dollar devaluation
against commodities such as oil and metals and real estate.

Taint gunna happen, you watch.

Yet such a claim is irrelevant to the efficacy of the thesis.

There in no 'thesis', just your desperate pig ignorant wanking.

The rest of the currencies will follow. The world should have
learned a lesson from this but they have not done so yet.

And it wont ever, you watch.


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