Re: OT: America is Ticking Timebomb Thanks to Bush Corruption

From: Spehro Pefhany (speffSNIP_at_interlogDOTyou.knowwhat)
Date: 10/05/04 

Date: Mon, 04 Oct 2004 23:04:08 -0400

On 4 Oct 2004 18:33:53 -0700, the renowned Winfield Hill
<Winfield_member@newsguy.com> wrote:

>Spehro Pefhany wrote...
>>
>> I recently listened to a top diplomat (under the Chatham House Rule,
>> or I'd name names) tell us that things are going just swimingly in
>> Afghanistan...
>
> "The new amendment means that participants are free to use the information
> received and can now also state that it was received at a Chatham House
> meeting. This provides clarity for participants and will allow summaries
> of meetings to be prepared."
>
> OK, we don't need nor care about the names, but we could use the facts.

A few points at random from my notes (note that this is with the
positive spin...)

* Afghanistan is the most mined country in the world. Some money-
  in the tens of millions of dollars annually- is being spent on
  dealing with this- if the funding continues, 2012 is the
  target date for completion.

* The economy is now very open to foreigners, especially compared
  to Pakistan and Uzbekistan. (He didn't mention how much
  foreign investment was actually happening).

* Kabul is the most destroyed capital in the world- the US
  bombardment following the 1992-1996 civil war pretty much
  wrecked everything.

* He says that of the 34 provinces, only 4 at present are badly
  affected by the insurgency.

* The country is essentially a big arsenal- there are enough weapons,
  including 4,000-5,000 heavy weapons for many months of high-
  intensity conflict. There has not been much real progress to date in
  disarming the warlords. On the plus side, flows of new weapons into
  the country are "not enormous".

* Foreign governments are DIRECTLY paying the salaries of most of
  the government employees in Kabul- police, judicial, civil servants
  etc. There is little control outside Kabul. Kabul, BTW, is very
  much more "cosmopolitan" than the rest of the country, which is very
  conservative. NGOs are less active in Afghanistan than in many
  similar situations. Money is also going to stabilization
  operations at the district level , National Solidarity,
  microfinancing, the election process.

* Schools (such as they are) are operating, but many, even in Kabul
  consist of kids sitting on the dirt in tents with just a
  blackboard. Kids have to go to school in shifts from 7AM to 9PM
 (up to 4 shifts per day- which by my calculations means they are
  only going part-time). The foreigners have been pushing for
  girl children to be educated, and this is happening.

* Their prospects for income-generation are pretty dismal.
  Tourism is a long-term possibility, for the near term,
  besides opium, dried fruit and perfume materials (roses) can be
  exported, mostly to the EU. Afghanistan produces 85%
  of the world's opium. No change is likely to this for
  decades to come.

* The much-heralded "voting with the feet" of 4-5 million Afghans
  returning to Afghanistan (out of 6 million refugees) is mostly due
  to Pakistan and especially Iran pushing the refugees out, not by
  their choice.

For a slightly more dated and far more negative view on Afghanistan,
_Imperial Hubris_ by Anonymous (outed as CIA headquarters (not a field
agent) counter-terrorism specialist Michael Scheuer)- it's not a heavy
read, with a radically different take on things (though I don't agree
with some of the things he says, they are always thought-provoking).
Here are a couple of critical summaries/reviews:

http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2004/sep/joynerSept04.asp
http://www.powells.com/review/2004_08_10.html

As Richard Clarke wrote, perhaps more interesting even than Mr.
Scheuer's insights is the fact that the CIA even allowed it to be
published.

Best regards,
Spehro Pefhany 

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