Re: Is New Orleans finished ?



Winfield Hill wrote: 
Winfield Hill wrote...

John Larkin wrote:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/30/national/30cycle.html?ei=5065&en=9e0e24b0c5ee1d90&ex=1125979200&partner=MYWAY&pagewanted=print 

I recognize that any one storm may be more part of a natural cycle
then a trend, because I have to respect the scientists who say that.
One was this fellow, who I have heard in several long interviews:
To quote from your reference, "In an article this month in the journal
Nature, Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at MIT, wrote that global
warming might have already had some effect. The total power dissipated
by tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increased
70 to 80 percent in the last 30 years, he wrote."

But in his interviews, Emanuel says that, based on his research, he is
a strong believer in global warming.  He asserted that the increased
CO2 has had a HUGE effect, easily seen in the decades of measurements
he's accumulated, as a steady global increase in total integrated power
dissipated by all the tropical storms, and seen in individual seasons
by stronger swings and specific more powerful storms.  Such as Katrina,
we can now add.  How anyone can read "increased 70 to 80 percent in the
last 30 years" and argue this is natural beats me.  Anyway, John, please
go read the Nature article.  Given its importance, I'll take the liberty
of posting it to s.e.d., where it will have a short life in the servers.



 His website has the paper, so you can ignore my a.b.s.e. post copy.
 ftp://texmex.mit.edu/pub/emanuel/PAPERS/NATURE03906.pdf

 The conservative anti-global-warming crowd has come out in strength
 against Kerry Emanuel's new paper.  But he's a hurricane researcher
 who knows what he's talking about...  His website lists what appears
 to be nearly 120 papers he's written or co-authored on the subject,
 many of which are available for downloading, go read them and judge
 for yourself.  http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/cvweb/cvweb.html

 I like his integrated-energy argument; I like to think it's exactly
 the sensible approach an engineer would take in analyzing the scene.
 Why shouldn't the integrated scale, wind-velocity and duration of
 all the storms matter more than traditional storm "frequency," or
 wind "intensity," etc., which ignores a storm's size and duration?

Right- well that's exactly the argument the LSU weather physicists used to explain why Katrina had a Cat 4 wind speed with Cat 5 tidal surge, stored momentum.


 Yet that conservative grand-dad spokesman, William Gray, of CSU,
 characterizes this idea as "a terrible paper, one of the worst I've
 ever looked at."   Hah, he certainly doesn't think like an engineer!
 I think he glances at the "hockey-stick" curves in the paper, and
 then quickly works backward to his conclusion: that can't be right.



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