Re: I'm surprised...

On Fri, 23 Dec 2005 19:13:34 +0100, theJackal
<f_a_s_t_g_s_f_r_i_d_e_r@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

>>>
>>>Rubbish? LOL. Be reasonable man . I know a mathematician who disagrees with both of us.
>>>Generalizations are always dangerous.
>>>Give an example of an event which has occured with a probability of 10^-20 . NONE is the
>>>answer.
>>>
>>
>>If an experiment has a positive-outcome probability of 1e-20, and you
>>repeat it 1e25 times, it's practically guaranteed to hit.
>>
>>So, consider, on a planet the size of Earth, covered mostly by water
>>full of organic stuff, bathed in UV and other interesting stimuli, how
>>many chemical experiments are performed in a billion years?
>>
>>Hmmm... assume 1e20 per liter per second...
>>
>>John
>>
>Its more complicated then that. If you have ever tried carrying put any chemical
>reaction in the lab you'll know.

Of course I have.

> You have to give precise inputs like temperatures ,
>chemical , precise quantities and so forth just to get one chemical reaction in the right
>direction and thats in controlled conditions. Here we are talking about chemical
>reactions which have not been duplicated in labs because of their complexity and we are
>talking about just one type of protein necessary for life! Life is not made of proteins
>but much more then that .. so the probabality curve strongly tends toward zero!

If you perform, say 1e80 random chemical experiments, only one has to
work right, and make a compound that can replicate and be the basis
for the next steps. That methodology doesn't have a lot in common with
Tuesday-afternoon Chem101 labs.

John


.

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