Re: Copper theft


dagmargoodboat@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:
John Larkin wrote:
On 21 Sep 2006 03:52:57 -0700, bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:

[snip]

And the U.S. uses twice as much oil per head as the Europeans,

U.S. : 25bbl, Norway: 20bbl, U.K.: 10.4bbl, Italy: 11.8bbl, Belgium:
22bbl (per capita)

which is an economic time bomb.

No it isn't. You forget that we earn a lot more money than you do.
Assume 12k miles/annum, 20 mpg, and $3/gallon, and you get $1.8k in
annual commuting costs. On average, however, U.S. citizens earn ~$10K
more, and keep more of it than Europeans, easily covering the cost.

What is your source for that figure? It seems a bit odd to me - though
if you are averaging over the entire European Community you may be
including enough under-developed countries (like Portugal and Ireland)
to push down the average income to this extent.

<snip>

I think the US will do fine, as it is, and has been, pretty resilient
in adapting to circumstances. Europe will certainly survive as europe,
but I think the stresses will be a bit worse, due to the severe drop
in native birth rates and an unfamiliarty with massive immigration,
which is going to happen.

There has already been quite massive immigration into Europe - ever
heard of "guest workers"? It does produce social tensions and
occasional problems, but U.S.-style race riots are very few and far
between.

European-style race riots are uncommon here.

Yes. Watts-style race riots - which destroy a lot more property - are
your norm.

Methinks the Europeans
are stricter with their guests, making plain their temporary and lesser
status, and following through by expelling them as convenient. Here
illegal immigrants, emboldened by our freedom, demand rights; they'd
never presume such in Europe.

Methinks you better learn a little more about the subject.

<snip>

I think you are under-estimating the effects that rising oil prices are
going to have on the way your society works. You are much more
car-dependent than Europe, and a great deal of your housing stock is
going to be effectively useless when the price of petrol/gasoline makes
car=based commuting uneconomic.

Your innocence is charming. Here's how it works in a free-moving,
mobile, adaptive society:
1. Houses far removed from jobs cost less because of this. People buy
on the outskirts, to save money, and commute.

Raise the cost of commuting enugh, and you won't be able to give away
the more remote housing.

2. Business costs rise in congested areas. Businesses move. Jobs,
then, simply move to where houses cost less. It's happening now.

Businesses have their own transport costs. Raise the price of fuel
enough, and they will go back to clustering around railheads - the
railways don't have to run on oil-based fuels.

Your optimism is depressingly ill-informed.

--
Bill Sloman, Nijmegen

.

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