Re: Copper theft

dagmargoodboat@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:
dagmargoodboat@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:
John Larkin wrote:
On 21 Sep 2006 03:52:57 -0700, bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:
[snip]

And the U.S. uses twice as much oil per head as the Europeans,
U.S. : 25bbl, Norway: 20bbl, U.K.: 10.4bbl, Italy: 11.8bbl, Belgium:
22bbl (per capita)

which is an economic time bomb.
No it isn't. You forget that we earn a lot more money than you do.
Assume 12k miles/annum, 20 mpg, and $3/gallon, and you get $1.8k in
annual commuting costs. On average, however, U.S. citizens earn ~$10K
more, and keep more of it than Europeans, easily covering the cost.
What is your source for that figure? It seems a bit odd to me - though
if you are averaging over the entire European Community you may be
including enough under-developed countries (like Portugal and Ireland)
to push down the average income to this extent.

The CIA Factbook, www.cia.gov

(Per capita GDP in parity purchasing power):
(view in Courier font)
GDP Debt
Population (PPP) (% GDP) Unemployment
---------- ------- ------ ------------
Belguim 10,379,067 $31,400 94.3 8.4%
France 60,876,136 29,900 66.2 9.9
Germany 82,422,299 30,400 67.3 11.7
U.K. 60,609,153 30,300 43.1 4.7
Norway 4,610,820 42,300 50.1 4.6
Spain 40,397,842 25,500 42.9 9.2
Italy 58,133,509 29,200 108.8 7.7
Netherlands 16,491,461 30,500 52.7 6.6
Isle of Man 75,441 28,500 0.6
United States 298,444,215 41,800 64.7 5.1


These figures are already scaled in the mythical "parity purchasing power" (it's mythical, since different things cost different amounts in different countries - there can be no single scale factor. In Norway, for example, material goods are cheap, but services are expensive). Thus differences such as cheaper oil in the USA will scale in the favour of the USA. Looking at the nominal figures (not adjusted by cost of living estimates) puts the USA at about $20,000 below Norway.

Additionally, these figures are based on arithmetic mean averages, and are therefore skewed by the USA's greater spread of incomes. The GDP(PPP) may represent the average purchasing power of citizens, but it doesn't represent the purchasing power of the average citizen.

http://abstractnonsense.wordpress.com/2006/08/29/the-usas-economic-inequality/



<snip>

I think the US will do fine, as it is, and has been, pretty resilient
in adapting to circumstances. Europe will certainly survive as europe,
but I think the stresses will be a bit worse, due to the severe drop
in native birth rates and an unfamiliarty with massive immigration,
which is going to happen.
There has already been quite massive immigration into Europe - ever
heard of "guest workers"? It does produce social tensions and
occasional problems, but U.S.-style race riots are very few and far
between.
European-style race riots are uncommon here.
Yes. Watts-style race riots - which destroy a lot more property - are
your norm.

Methinks the Europeans
are stricter with their guests, making plain their temporary and lesser
status, and following through by expelling them as convenient. Here
illegal immigrants, emboldened by our freedom, demand rights; they'd
never presume such in Europe.
Methinks you better learn a little more about the subject.

A buddy of mine, highly skilled, was gainfully employed, working
several years in Switzerland on an appropriate visa, was ejected on a
moment's notice, for no particular reason. He moved to Germany &
commuted.

Those reins are pretty tight! Compare that to the U.S., where we let
hijackers overstay their visas for years, and, if we catch them, they
get due process, and can fight deportation for years more.

<snip>

I think you are under-estimating the effects that rising oil prices are
going to have on the way your society works. You are much more
car-dependent than Europe, and a great deal of your housing stock is
going to be effectively useless when the price of petrol/gasoline makes
car=based commuting uneconomic.
Your innocence is charming. Here's how it works in a free-moving,
mobile, adaptive society:
1. Houses far removed from jobs cost less because of this. People buy
on the outskirts, to save money, and commute.
Raise the cost of commuting enugh, and you won't be able to give away
the more remote housing.

It's a trivial cost. See above.

2. Business costs rise in congested areas. Businesses move. Jobs,
then, simply move to where houses cost less. It's happening now.
Businesses have their own transport costs. Raise the price of fuel
enough, and they will go back to clustering around railheads - the
railways don't have to run on oil-based fuels.

Your optimism is depressingly ill-informed.

Sorry if it's depressing, but it's not ill-informed. I've lived long
enough to see several cycles of what I've described in-the-flesh, and
in several geographical locations, including now, all around me. It's
a continuous process, the process that produces urban sprawl here. You
might not have seen it because Europe doesn't do that, with much of the
land already centuries in use, and transportation costs that *are* very
high.

So you see, my model is from life, and time-tested, not speculation.

Best regards,
James Arthur

.

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