Re: OT, damned cold OT

Greetings Don,

On Feb 23, 10:56 pm, d...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Don Klipstein) wrote:
In <1171605812.019318.16...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, James Arthur wrote:

On Feb 15, 3:47 pm, Richard The Dreaded Libertarian <n...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
On Wed, 14 Feb 2007 23:11:25 -0800, Singburi Sam wrote:
BTW, the rosy predictions of lush rainforests in the tropics and a rich
breadbasket in near-Arctic are not borne out by predictive models.

That's because the "predictive models" that they're using now are designed
to produce the results they want.

My Dad--a serious scientist--noted acidly that research has become
that process whereby you collect facts that support your original
hypothesis.

As far as predictive models, a soaking-wet winter was predicted for
California based on El Nino--possibly the most studied and best
understood phenomenon in this field, and with the most extensive real-
time real-world data input on Earth. California, however, is _dry_.

We have been having a rather minor El Nino. Those tend to cause blown
seasonal forecasts, especially for precipitation and storm tracks.

Indeed, El Niño has been mild, which was my point: that existing
models, even with such extensive real-time real-world input, and all
the study of El Niño, can't accurately predict even this micro-
feature, not even half a year in advance. IOW, the thing is not well
understood.

And 2005, was a record-setting hurricane season heralded as proof of
GW and a harbinger of worse to come. 2006, though, came in way under
average.

In number of named storms and number of hurricanes, the 2006 "Atlantic
Basin" hurricane season exceeded the 1950-2000 average.

I should've been more specific. The season had 0.4 more named
storms than average, as you say, but 0.9 fewer hurricanes and 0.6
fewer major hurricanes. It was, however, the limitations of the
predictive models I was highlighting, and I should've emphasized
instead that "the 2006 season fell well short of predictions."

Let's look at the actual numbers...

According to Wikipedia[1], 2006 had:
o 10 "named storms," compared to a 1950-2000 average of 9.6,
o 5 hurricanes, compared to the 1950-2000 average of 5.9, and
o 2 "major hurricanes," compared to the 1950-2000 average of 2.6.

So, strictly speaking, 2006 had 0.4 named storms over the historical
average, with fewer than average hurricanes and major hurricanes.

Back to the limitations of forecasts, at the outset of the 2005
hurricane season (August 2005), NOAA substantially underpredicted the
season's activity. NOAA predicted[2]:
o 18-21 tropical storms (actual was 28),
o 9-11 hurricanes (actual: 15), and
o 5-7 major hurricanes (actual: 7)

At the onset of the 2006 season (August 2006), NOAA predicted as
follows[1]:
o 12-15 tropical storms (actual: 10)
o 7-9 hurricanes (actual: 5)
o 3-4 major hurricanes (actual: 2)

So, that's a factual review of the actual numbers vis-à-vis the
reliability of predictions three months into the future.

Strangely, no one seems excited about that, about the
possibility that we might all live after all.

IOW, the models can't see six months into the future, yet are being
relied on to forecast 50-100 years in the future.

I am not expecting anyone to know whether the winter of 2060-2061 will
have an El Nino or a La Nina or neither.

Nor would I expect it. However, this isn't which I was trying to
convey. Namely, that even well-studied, well-instrumented subsets of
the climate presently defy prediction. Given the model and current
state info, we still can't say what's coming next.

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." --Yogi
Berra

However, I am expecting some
positive correlation between predicted results and actual results in
terms of long term trends (longer than a decade) from increasing CO2
content in the atmosphere by 50-100% or whatever.

So am I, but I don't think it really matters much. Consider:

If a) the atmospheric lifetime of CO2 is really measured in
centuries (I found estimates from 50 (US govmnt) to 450 years
(Wikipedia)), and b) one assumes that we've already warmed the Earth
by it, then c) even if we (the world) immediately cut emissions to
zero, the trend would continue for centuries.

Don't get me wrong--it _always_ makes sense to use the least energy
and materials possible, to reduce, reuse, and recycle, and to leave
the planet better than we found it--but there are two billion people
in China and India who'd love to have cars, will soon be able to
afford it, and we have precious little power or place to dissuade
them.

So, if the Earth's warming, it looks like we're just going to have
to get used to it, and adapt.

Best wishes,
James Arthur

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season
[2] http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2540.htm

.

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