Re: That global warming thingy
- From: don@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Don Klipstein)
- Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2007 06:54:27 +0000 (UTC)
In article <45F4D15C.51DF91EB@xxxxxxxxxxx>, Eeyore wrote:
Jeff L wrote:
but the real
problem is not the ice melting, but the water expanding as it warms up. We
warm the massive amounts of water on the planet up a few degrees, and it
expands enough to raise the sea level to very bad levels. Considering the
deep sea oceans are 12 + km deep in most places,
Where ? I thought mainly 3 km for deep ocean.
Most deep ocean is more like 5 km deep.
So when I said in my other post 2.4 meter sea level rise from thermal
expansion being on the alarmist side, take that down to 1 meter to correct
from 12 km to 5 km average ocean depth.
a small volumetric change of a 1% expansion could roughly raise the levels:
12,000 m * 0.01 = 120m!
Where did you get your 1% from ?
And it's not all 12km deep btw. In fact I know of nowhere that deep. A heck of a
lot of it is shallow. Plus it takes apparently ~ 10,000 years to make
significant changes in overall ocean temperatures.
I figured a century or two for thermal time constant of the ocean mass
with respect to a change in balance between incoming and outgoing
radiation. Maybe soon I will try again and see if I get something
different - but I still expect somewhere from several decades to a few
or at most several centuries.
If 1 century is correct, then 1980-2007 linearly warming from "normal"
to .6 degree C high would have warmed the ocean mass so far by roughly 27%
of .3 degree C, a bit less than .1 degree C. With most of the ocean mass
at temperature close to that of maximum density of water, I am not
surprised if from 1980 to 2007 the sea level rose an inch or a centimeter
or stayed the same. I expect pretty much the same story in terms of ocean
expansion for the next .1 degree C rise in temperature of the hydrosphere
(2019-2020 or so), and not getting much worse until mid-century. A
century or two from now we may or may not have the oceans expand enough to
raise sea level by a meter. The big problem is if things warm up enough
to melt down the Greenland and Antarctica icecaps.
- Don Klipstein (don@xxxxxxxxx)
.
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