Re: That global warming thingy

In article <31obv2p7eevsbndn6bpst70pbgp5b5pja4@xxxxxxx>, John Larkin wrote:
On Mon, 12 Mar 2007 21:49:44 +0000 (UTC), don@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Don
Klipstein) wrote:

This is for raising the entire mass of the oceans by an average of 2
degrees. It assumes that the surface temperature will maintain a .035
degree C per year rise after 1979 and that the thermal mass of the oceans
forms a first order lowpass filter with a time constant of 270 years as
calculated or "calculated" above.
I did not actually calculate but only estimated the time needed for the
output of a first order 270-year-time-constant filter to increase by 2
units after the start of a .035 unit per year ramp signal. Now I tried a
simple computer model for this, and get 197 years - the year 2176.

(for sea level to rise by 1 meter from thermal expansion)

=====================================

Now for another scenario:
<SNIP>
Using a 600 meter depth instead of a 3710 meter depth, the thermal time
constant shortens from 270 years to 44 years. With input signal of a .035
degree per year ramp starting in 1979, my simple computer model projects a
2 degree rise 97 years from 1979, or in 2075.
<SNIP>
So when the top 600 meters has warmed up by 2 degrees C, it would expand
by about .03%, or .18 meter.

You must be wrong. Al Gore says 20 feet.

My figures are for only sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the
ocean, or alternatively of thermal expansion of the top 600 meters, due to
2 degree C temperature rise.

Most of the bigger projections include icecap melting.

- Don Klipstein (don@xxxxxxxxx)
.

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