Re: OT - Major quake prediction - dec 20007

On Dec 20, 2:55�am, Paul Burke <p...@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
dspmind wrote:
Sub : Major Earthquake that can outperform 2004-Sumatra is predicted
to occur between 23-dec and 29-dec 2007, by an Indian Astrologer
Mr Natarajan.

Now hold on a minute, this guy could have something here.....
In the (wonderful) book, the Black Swan by Nicholas Taleb, he says
pretty plainly that there really aren't many "experts" out there, and
few fields even can support experts.

The rest are just lucky recipients of random chance. So in other
words, if you have a lucky streak and get a few early predictions
right, all of the sudden you're an "expert". when really it's just
dumb luck.

He goes on to say that you're much better off getting your stock
advice from a New York cab driver than an investment banker. Not
because the advice is any "better", but because you're less likely to
place any faith in it.

So I say, this Indian Astrologer guy is like the New York City cab
driver.
Maybe we ought to listen to him?
Or maybe we ought to stop listening to those hurricane prediction
"experts"?

-mpm
.