Re: OT: Innovation A Random Process?

On Sun, 20 Jan 2008 15:51:23 -0800 (PST), Le Chaud Lapin
<jaibuduvin@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Jan 20, 5:37 pm, John Larkin
<jjlar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Most of the big success stories in technology were by individuals who
got lucky, and you don't hear much about the tens of thousands who
didn't. One key metric is whether the big winners, after making their
billions, are able to do it again. Most aren't, which indicates that
their ability to predict the directions of technology is nil. Name a
few people who have had multiple, large-scale successes at innovation.

I have often wondered about that: whether one-trick-ponies are one-
trick becaus they

1. Had only one real trick (but a really good trick)
2. Are fatigued from the years of perfecting that one trick
3. Impatient with future tricks, not appreciating the requisite effort
to make a trick work, as evidenced by 1st trick.

or

4. They accidentally had the right idea at the right time.

Recall, the subject here is, as you posted, "the acceptance of
innovative products", as distinct from prolific scientific discovery
or invention. It's like classic neo-Darwinian evolution, or modern
politics: tens of thousands, or millions, of things get invented and
exposed to the market, pretty much at random. Some few are successful,
by a combination of chance, fashion, and positive feedback. These are
called "successful innovations" after the fact. Once you make a few
billion, even by accident, no matter how big a jerk you are, lots of
reporters will fawn about your brilliance.


Many markets today develop bottom-up, with fads emerging from nowhere.

That's true. And the naysers like to work that angle. The general
public loves too embrace the idea that the innovator was tinkering in
his lab on something unrelated and just happened to stumble upon a
revelutionary idea. It makes the rest of us feel better.

An idea is declared to be revolutionary BY the general public.

John


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: OT: Innovation A Random Process?
    ... few people who have had multiple, large-scale successes at innovation. ... Had only one real trick ... to make a trick work, ... public loves too embrace the idea that the innovator was tinkering in ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: charlie chan
    ... sum with a side order of won ton soup would do the trick. ... he won't talk to you since he's busy running a very successful ... international import/export business. ...
    (soc.culture.china)
  • Re: Why wont this work ?
    ... whether the unregistration was successful. ... function was able to execute the program at all. ... The trick is to use LoadLibrary, GetProcAddress and then call the AX ...
    (alt.comp.lang.borland-delphi)
  • Re: Re-run same package even after successful execution
    ... > Create a second mandatory assignment for the advertisement -- that should do ... It doesn't do the trick, ... successfully run the first advertisement: ... to run this program was not successful. ...
    (microsoft.public.sms.admin)
  • Re: electrical connectors
    ... "Spawn of Satan" usually does the trick. ... Are these things _really_ a 3M invention? ...
    (rec.autos.tech)