Re: OT: Innovation A Random Process?

On Jan 20, 9:13 pm, John Larkin
<jjlar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Sun, 20 Jan 2008 15:51:23 -0800 (PST), Le Chaud Lapin
1. Had only one real trick (but a really good trick)
2. Are fatigued from the years of perfecting that one trick
3. Impatient with future tricks, not appreciating the requisite effort
to make a trick work, as evidenced by 1st trick.

or

4. They accidentally had the right idea at the right time.

Recall, the subject here is, as you posted, "the acceptance of
innovative products", as distinct from prolific scientific discovery
or invention. It's like classic neo-Darwinian evolution, or modern
politics: tens of thousands, or millions, of things get invented and
exposed to the market, pretty much at random. Some few are successful,
by a combination of chance, fashion, and positive feedback. These are
called "successful innovations" after the fact. Once you make a few
billion, even by accident, no matter how big a jerk you are, lots of
reporters will fawn about your brilliance.

You make some convincing points, but let me ask another question.
Let's supposed we could turn back the clock to say, 1990, when people
were still using Discman's in place of solid-state MP3 players and
IPods.

Let's go to a popular USA electronics store in 2008 and pick the 2nd-
worst solid-state MP3 player on the shelf and hypothetically put it on
the market for roughly 20% more than the average cost of a Discman in
in 1990, selling both the .MP3 player and the Discman in 1990.

My guess is that there would be a sufficient at that cost that would
make it a worthwhile purchase for a lot of people.

The same could be said for the average $5 calculator at the local
grocery store. In 1950, such machines would have been a steal, even
at $20.

But it is not just cost alone. If you take that same $5 calculator
and require that you shake it vigoroulsy ever 15 seconds to make it
useful, it would be less accptable.

So I guess my point is that, with all most any product, you can point
to a reason, after the fact, why it did not fail. Yes, sometimes it
is poor marketing. But more time than not, it is something else like:

1. Oooh--Oooh!, Me Too!!! Product.
2. Too expensive
3. Too awkward to use.
4. Buggy, prone to roll-over, or explode randomly (exploding turns
people off).

There are people who make a living analyzing the relative merits of
consume products. It is hard to imagine that, if you were to ask them
about a product that failed in the market, their answer would be
"Great product...have no idea." Usually they will have an opinion,
many times accurate.

What's frustrating is when an inventor claims to have something
revolutionary, and says that the market (or his boss) is being
obstinate, and you finally decide to spend your own time examining the
product, and find that there is a flaw so significant that no one in
his right mind would touch it.

1. "Ok...so...yeah.. it does gives off a little particle
radiation...is that really such a big deal?"
2. "Well, technically yes, bio-fuel production *is* 4.5 times more
expensive than pretrol, but at least the polar bears will be happy."
3. "No, it's not PC compatible. It runs on an Earth Simulator. We
have a partnership with NEC if you're interested."
4. "Yes, it cures rheumatoid arthritis. Also causes kidney, pancreas,
liver, gall bladder, and heart failure, but only in a small percentage
of patients...please consult with your doctor if you take aspirin...."
5. "The sound quality is incomparable. You just need to replace all
your wiring with ours. You also need to replace your entire sound
system with ours. No we do not have rigorous proof that the sound
quality is better, but our experts say so."
6. "No, it's not TTL-compatible, but that doesn't really matter...once
the world switches to my new...."
7. "It mows the lawn all on its own. Keep your kids and pets inside
while it works, and tie a chain to it just in case."
8. "It flies from New York to London in only 4 hours! But, it's a bit
specialized. Fuel needs to be manually moved around in the aircraft by
pilots for balance during flight. Tickets are currently $3500/seat,
and we should be profitable in 30-35 years. No, you cannot fly it
from Paris to London. You need that much distance to safely turn it
around."
9. "It makes your lips fuller. But when you turn 60, your lips will
start a process of exponential decay."

I think, especially in 2008, that there are enough people with a
little extra money who are willing try something new just because they
think it's cool. No, there will not be millions of early adopters,
but there might be a few hundred, if it is a promising consumer
product with potentially broad market appeal, and from this, a lot
can, and does happen. To see this...all one has to do is pay close
attention to the products that are on the shelf. Generally there is
not one of a kind, but several, some never heard of, but the company
is selling because for whatever reason, some consumer bought on a
promise.

-Le Chaud Lapin-
.

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