Re: More fraudulent IPCC models.

In <fqt1445icu2dgglvth8ic5c9ikbc2dm0ae@xxxxxxx>, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Sat, 31 May 2008 06:27:40 +0000 (UTC), don@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Don
Klipstein) wrote:

In <fpbs34lanj4umnsc4vs98gf65sncldn0uv@xxxxxxx>, Jeff Liebermann wrote:
On Wed, 28 May 2008 05:47:09 +0100, Eeyore
<rabbitsfriendsandrelations@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

How Accurate is the IPCC Climate Forecast?

Yep. Are you going to believe the same experts and computer models,
that can't predict the weather a few days ahead, to be able to predict
the weather a few decades or centuries ahead?

(Sorry, I just couldn't resist).

I would find this somewhat analogous to predicting what percentage of
the time the main switching transistor in a buck converter is on or off as
a function of changed load or power source conditions, vs. which state it
will be in a minute or a week into the future.

- Don Klipstein (don@xxxxxxxxx)

Huh? I don't understand and I'm not sure I want to understand.

Anyway, long range weather predictions don't require a computah or
government grants. The Old Farmer's Almanac has been doing it for 200
years (and is still selling well):
<http://www.almanac.com/weather/>
<http://www.almanac.com/weathercenter/howwepredict.php>

I have read those Old Farmer's Almanacs enough.

They predict enough major snowstorms to specific weeks prone to having
them, enough cold snaps to specific weeks having them, enough January
thaws since few winters lack those...

I remember how there had been historically a "January Thaw" from about
the 14th to the 26th of January or so. Usually from the 15th to the 22nd
or so. Also called the "Midwinter Thaw".

My experience near Philadelphia PA is that this phenomenon faded in the
past decade, notably with an exception in 1998 when my region had a great
thaw early in January.

In the decade before that, I found peak January temperature mainly
within a few days of the 25th, followed by "The 2nd Half of Winter".
Before then, I did notice a brief uptick in January temperature often
being the high for the whole month usually close to the 19th.

But nowadays in the post-1998 era, I have noticed increase in seasonal
lag in ice cover on the southern half of Hudson Bay, making winters in the
NE portion of USA generally a few days later in both beginning and end.
Autumns appear to me to be warming while the first half of spring so far
appears to me to be resisting warming from one decade to the next.

- Don Klipstein (don@xxxxxxxxx)
.

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