Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere

On Jul 26, 5:31 pm, bill.slo...@xxxxxxxx wrote:
On Jul 26, 1:06 pm, James Arthur wrote:

bill.slo...@xxxxxxxx wrote:
James Arthur wrote:

[Climate modeling] is like the stock market and the many, many "models" developed
to profit from it. They all go bust.

"Past performance is not an indication of future results."
    --Wall Street disclaimer

And this is for a closed, mildly chaotic system with a
well-established long-term upward trend, with a limited
set of variables, all available with great precision,
in real-time. The entire system is "instrumented,"
documented, and logged on-line.

Sure, but any predictive model of the stock market feeds information
to the participants in the market, who proceed to try and exploit,
thus destroying the model's predictive capacity.

No, I'm speaking of any number of super-secret attempts by
Wall Streeters to hire PhD statisticians, super computers,
and try to beat the street with models.

They absolutely do not share info with the market.

PBS (Public Broadcast System, public, non-profit TV in the US) has
documented at least one such attempt.

As soon as they buy shares, they share information with the market.

--
Bill Sloman, Nijmegen


That notion doesn't follow. To the extent it's true, it would
increase profits.

Think about it.

Cheers,
James Arthur
.

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