Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere



John Popelish wrote:

John Larkin wrote:
On Sat, 2 Aug 2008 23:49:06 -0700 (PDT), bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:

Paleontologists have exacly the same kind of problem. Climate models
are in fact testable - feed in last century's climate, and see how
well the model predicts this century's climate.

That's not simulation, that's curve fitting. It works fine backwards
in time, if you tweak the model to make it so. You can model
past-history Gaussian noise that way.

You just summed up the fallacy that the book, "The Black
Swan" is all about.

Can you elaborate ?

Graham

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