Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere

On Aug 4, 11:10 am, Eeyore <rabbitsfriendsandrelati...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
John Popelish wrote:
John Larkin wrote:
On Sat, 2 Aug 2008 23:49:06 -0700 (PDT), bill.slo...@xxxxxxxx wrote:

Paleontologists have exacly the same kind of problem. Climate models
are in fact testable - feed in last century's climate, and see how
well the model predicts this century's climate.

That's not simulation, that's curve fitting. It works fine backwards
in time, if you tweak the model to make it so. You can model
past-history Gaussian noise that way.

You just summed up the fallacy that the book, "The Black
Swan" is all about.

Can you elaborate ?

The book was written by a stock-broker who makes his money by being
prepared to exploit un-expected excursions in the stock-market. It is
a legitimate critique of mindless modelling,but one can reasonably
expect the IPCC to have this in mind when they report on the the
climate modelling results that have made it into the peer-reviewed
literature.

--
Bill Sloman,Nijmegen
.

Relevant Pages

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  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
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  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... well the model predicts this century's climate. ... if you tweak the model to make it so. ... Steve McIntryre WAS a peer reviewer for the IPCC. ... He DID see the forest or at got a glimse of it and he ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... well the model predicts this century's climate. ... if you tweak the model to make it so. ... Steve McIntryre WAS a peer reviewer for the IPCC. ... They refused to supply the raw data so he could verify Mann's result. ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... well the model predicts this century's climate. ... if you tweak the model to make it so. ... Steve McIntryre WAS a peer reviewer for the IPCC. ... He DID see the forest or at got a glimse of it and he ...
    (sci.electronics.design)