Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere

On Sun, 3 Aug 2008 20:15:53 -0700 (PDT), bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:

On Aug 4, 12:20 pm, John Larkin
<jjlar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Sun, 03 Aug 2008 22:18:18 -0400, John Popelish <jpopel...@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:





John Larkin wrote:
On Sun, 03 Aug 2008 21:57:15 -0400, John Popelish <jpopel...@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:

I'll try.  The book is all about how we pretend to be able
to predict the future based on inductive logic
(extrapolating from past experience), and how this falls
down in the presence of rare exceptions or "black swans"
(with rare being defined as outside recent memory or
education).  It doesn't explain how to predict the
unpredictable, but how to avoid being a sucker by mistakenly
thinking you have predicted (quantified) risk but have not.

One of the common ways that people fool themselves into
thinking they have a grasp of future risk is to model the
past as a Gaussian process.  But many processes, including
the stock market and business in general (the big exception
being gambling casinos), are more chaotic, or Mandelbrotian
rather than Gaussian.  But you can perform Gaussian modeling
on long stretches of Mandelbrotian data between the
explosive exception parts and it looks like a good fit...
until the next blow up happens.

Experience is the worst teacher.

Exactly the point of the book.  Our brains are generally
wired up for simple things and short terms, not long and
complicated patterns.  Modern life has left common sense
behind.  Ask any bank manager who has, in the last year,
lost more money than his bank has made since the day he was
born, estimating his risk on Gaussian models.

Yup, people tend to not believe in catastrophes.

So get hold of Tony Hallam's "Catastrophes and lesser Calamities"
ISBN-10: 0192806688
ISBN-13: 978-0192806680 - it may just correct the weakness in your own
approach to anthropogenic global warming.

Geez, what a tedious old fart you have become.

John

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... (extrapolating from past experience), and how this falls ... down in the presence of rare exceptions or "black swans" ... past as a Gaussian process. ... explosive exception parts and it looks like a good fit... ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... (extrapolating from past experience), and how this falls ... down in the presence of rare exceptions or "black swans" ... past as a Gaussian process. ... explosive exception parts and it looks like a good fit... ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... to predict the future based on inductive logic (extrapolating from past experience), and how this falls down in the presence of rare exceptions or "black swans". ... But many processes, including the stock market and business in general (the big exception being gambling casinos), are more chaotic, or Mandelbrotian rather than Gaussian. ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... (extrapolating from past experience), and how this falls ... thinking you have predicted risk but have not. ... past as a Gaussian process. ... explosive exception parts and it looks like a good fit... ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere
    ... (extrapolating from past experience), and how this falls ... thinking you have predicted risk but have not. ... past as a Gaussian process. ... explosive exception parts and it looks like a good fit... ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
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