Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere

In article <7h4ok.784$7N1.577@trnddc06>, James Arthur wrote:
Don Klipstein wrote:
In article <GK0nk.406$ZV1.10@trnddc07>, James Arthur wrote:
Richard Henry wrote:
On Aug 7, 12:59 pm, James Arthur <bogusabd...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
The "scientific [AGW] data" existed in 1992 ? Doubtful,
no matter how you view it today.
Dr. Hansen's first controversial report to Congress was in 1988.
Yes, but containing what evidence? My impression is very little
existed then.

That's my query--how could he know, then?

Global temperature did get onto a serious uptick by 1988, although it
was early in the post-late-1970's uptick back then.

The first graph in the Wiki article on global warming shows annual and
smoothed HadCRUT-3 determination of global temperature deviation from the
1961-1990 average. The record La Nina of 1984 and early 1985 only cooled
the world to about .2 degree C warmer than the dips of 1974 and 1976.
1979, 1980, 1983 (second-strongest El Nino on record), 1987 and 1988
were warmer than the spikes of the warm period around 1940. 1987 and 1988
came close to 1983 without help from a similarly strong El Nino.

He's since embarked on a singular quest for vindication. Has
this clouded his objectivity?

That is an issue secific to Hansen. Those saying we don't have an AGW
problem are attacking him on basis of his figures being on the alarmist
side and with several known adjustments, many upward for recent years.

I would like to point out that The Register's "A Tale of Two
Thermometers" article in part appears to be joining the attack on Hansen,
and among other things cites HadCRUT-3v (a derivative work of HadCRUT-3,
adjusted from HadCRUT-3 with variance adjustments). That article also
cites the two main determinations of lower troposphere variations
temperature from satellite data, but showing only the period from
beginning of 1998 to early 2008 - which began with a hot spike and ended
with a cool spike from El Nino and La Nina.

In almost the same breath you speak of "a serious uptick," the
describe the cooling of 1998-2008 as a decade-long "cool-spike."

And that may even be a correct way to look at it.

BUT, how could Hansen know what he claimed to know in 1988? Just
on (then) recent temperature trends? Only a fool would make that
extrapolation--that's not evidence of anything (just as 10 years
of cooling doesn't forecast the opposite).

Is Hansen a fool? Or could he support his claims?

If you take the first graph in the Wiki article on global warming and
chop away everything after 1988 or 1987, the warming trend is obvious.

I try covering the right side with a piece of paper whose left edge gets
moved over various years. It looks to me that 1987 was about when it
started getting a bit obvious there was a warming trend that got well past
the 1940 peak, has been a solid warming trend since the 1948 dip,
accelerated upward in the late 1970's, and looked as if it would sustain.

It gets a littl more obvious as of 1990 and glaringly obvious as of
1995. Maybe that's why "The Great Global Warming Swindle" was noted to
show global temperatures only up to 1988.

It appears to me that as of 1985, the graph allowed for hope that the
temperature would rise only very slowly from a level close to that of the
1940 peak.

- Don Klipstein (don@xxxxxxxxx)
.

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