Re: OT: interesting global warming quote found elsewhwere

On Aug 15, 4:12 pm, Charlie E. <edmond...@xxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:31:37 -0500, Kris Krieger <m...@xxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:



Charlie E. <edmond...@xxxxxxxx> wrote in
news:poe9a41bqq82nnl95l0r8sfekdm580jshs@xxxxxxx:
Hi Kris,
We are talking about world wide temperature measurements, not notes
from a small lab experiment.  

It was my understanding that the reference to unprovided data was to a
specific paper written in 1998 by Mann (also, BTW, not all lab research is
"little").

This data of necessity MUST be in a
computer format, to allow for processing of the data.  

Is that an absolute...?  I don't know, I'm asking.

What the world
wants to see is 'What is the original, unmodified data?' 'What
modifications to this data did you perform?' and 'What algorithms did
you use on this data, and what were the final results?'

If you are instead talking about all global data, as opposed to just
whatever was used in that one paper by Mann, I googled "global AND climate
AND data" and got over 6.6 million hits, but hopefully, some of the
following links will be helpful (some require the visitor to follow down a
few layers of links, but you do arrive at numerical data):

           http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/recons.html- some of the links show
numbers, other data are in graph format, tho' I certainly haven't read all
the links yet, and therefore can't create any sort fo valid summary.

           http://www.skepticalscience.com/empirical-evidence-for-global-
warming.htm
(links to various sites which provide an abundance of numerical data).

           http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html

           3Adataset&taxa=iridl%3ADataset_Search&showlevel=20
&nestunder=facet&showcounts=on

           http://www.diva-gis.org/Data.htm

           http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/wdc/index.php

           http://www.diva-gis.org/Data.htm
(tho' the files are eveidently set up to be plugged into GIS software)

           http://www.sdi.gov/Curtis/global.html

So I'm confused by the statement that there isn't data.  Maybe I didn't
understand what you meant to say?  Maybe it's a specific type of data
you're referencing?  Or, if the reference to "data not made available" was
in reference to the specific data used in the one Mann article, that's one
situation, but if the question concerns availability, as you said, "world
wide temperature measurements", that seems to be a different kettle of
fish.

The thing is that I don't see real proof either than data is available, or
isn't available.  It's hard to get to, and damn confusing (becasue of the
sheer mass of it all), but it *seems* like there is enough to do a study if
one wanted...

While that first question is of great importance, the real killer is
the second one.  Most researchers must make allowances for missing
data points, points assumed to be in error, and datasets that are not
directly co-temporal or otherwise correlated.  How that deal with
these issues is often more than sufficient to skew the output to the
desired outcome.

Methods of statistical analysis seem to comprise the largest bugaboo.   I
never took statistics, so listings of methods are meaningless to me;  I
tried searching to find some explanations of the methods - so far, I found
(but have not yet gone through) a few possibilities:

http://www.ace.mmu.ac.uk/Resources/gcc/3-2-3.html
(a general tutorial on things climatalogical, for students)

http://answers.yahoo.com/search/search_result;_ylt=Ap4nzCz9DGe9n8GR5
_xf2Q0jzKIX;_ylv=3?
p=explain+the+statistical+methods+used+in+global+climate+analyses
(Yahoo Answers results listing - 51K+ results)

Another compendium:
http://www.ifla.org/I/resource/statistics.htm

At the same time, I do know that statistical analysis can be skewed, if
someone in unscrupulous, to force a fit into a given predetermined
conclusion, but if the GW/AGW analyses can do that, then there exists an
equal ability for anti-GW/AGW analyses to be similarly skewed.

Meanwhile, I also found this site
http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=22003a0d-37cc-4399-8bcc-
39cd20bed2f6&k=0
which explains the arguments of anti-GW people.  I read through most of it,  
but it doesn't convince me that there is no possibility of GW and thus a
Zero risk involved in assuming it isn't real.

Hi Kris,
I think in this case, it is more of a "Scientist A says AGW is
happening in study X with a temp. rise of Z", and so, we want to know
more about how and why he reached this conclusion.  He should have the
data set that he used, and should have a bit to say about how he
manipulated this dataset.

Now, I do happen to have had a few courses in statistics, two for my
bachelors (psychology!) and one for my masters (EE) so I do know a
little.  But in this type of thing, it goes much beyond just
statistics.  They start with that, but then they 'massage' the dataset
with other techniques, make assumptions, add in fudge factors, and
when you are done, you get the results that you expect!

Oh? Really? How do you know that?

The real problem is that we really don't, and probably at this point
CAN'T predict these trends.  They are still chaotic phenomenon that
have many more degrees of freedom than the PTB can appreciate.

You can't predict the trends, but your claim that it can't be done
doesn't to be based on any in-depth study of modern climatology.

--
Bill Sloman, Nijmegen
.

Relevant Pages

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