Re: OT: Hot, Flat and Crowded

In article <flk1m4h5iuc7bc7cabcedu5rc84kq92fig@xxxxxxx>, Raveninghorde wrote:
On Sat, 3 Jan 2009 17:23:20 -0800 (PST), bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:

On 3 jan, 21:13, Raveninghorde <raveninghorde@invalid> wrote:
On Sat, 3 Jan 2009 20:40:06 +0100, "Bill Sloman"

<bill.slo...@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

"Raveninghorde" <raveninghorde@invalid> schreef in bericht
news:vonul41m35gd29i4i229h9h9jpr5fkot9d@xxxxxxxxxx
On Fri, 2 Jan 2009 15:24:24 -0800 (PST), bill.slo...@xxxxxxxx wrote:

So how accurate is the temperature record?

http://surfacestations.org

Accurate enough. And these days NASA has got a bunch of satellites
backing up the surface stations, which do survery the entire planet.

The source for the wikipedia graph you keep posting seems to be here:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Note a lot of the source data comes from the measurement sites
investigated in my link:

http://surfacestations.org

So how accurate is the temperature record you like to quote?

It's pretty dumb to quote data based on appalling measurements. If an
engineer of mine did measurements like that he would be out of a job.

Sadly, you are probably wrong. "Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM
machines".

I'd expect that the data from the suspect measurement sites would be
processed before it went into the record.
The concept of cities as "urban heat islands" has been around for a while
now - since 1820 in fact.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island

From:

http://surfacestations.org

/quote

adjustments have been made to account for measurable and predictable
data biases, such as Time of Observation and station moves, but the
National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NASA's Goddard Institute of
Space Flight (GISS) who are the main collectors, analyzers, and
modelers of climatic data have not done a site by site hands on
photographic survey to account for microsite influences near the
thermometer. To date all such studies conducted have been data
analysis and data manipulations used to spot and/or minimize data
inconsistencies.

/end quote

The raw data errors will all be high and probably increasing.  So the
temperature curves depend on GISS fudge factors.  The phrase garbage
in garbage out springs to mind.

The errors are not a random distribution and looking at the site
survey results will probably exceed the value of the temperature
annomaly.

I think you are getting excited about a fairly trivial problem.
There are climatologists out there who would like nothing better than
to write a really impressive paper that would debunk global warming.
The fact that they haven't got around to doing it does suggest that
there's not enough uncorrected data in the system to blow up into a
head-line grabbing paper in Nature or Science or the Proceedings of
the American Academy of Science.

Back to my question how accurate is the temperature record?

http://www.cao-rhms.ru/krut/OAO2007_12E_03.pdf

A quick google shows no critcal comment on the article.

In summary the author gives an error band of 0.7K which is greater
than the claimed temeprature increase and also shows that the change
in the last 50 years is within the expected fluctuation range.

I suspect reluctance (that I myself indulge upon) to order web browsers
to go into Russia and nearby Eastern Europe with "modern-Mafia"
hacking/spyware and lacking-and-or-corrupted law enforcement.

Meanwhile, I do say that global-HadCRUT-3v as well as "lower
troposphere determinations from satellite data" by both RSS (RSS/MSU ?)
and UAH are good enough for The Register in their "A Tale of Two
Thermometers" article.

- Don Klipstein (don@xxxxxxxxx)
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: OT: Hot, Flat and Crowded
    ... backing up the surface stations, which do survery the entire planet. ... engineer of mine did measurements like that he would be out of a job. ... modelers of climatic data have not done a site by site hands on ... temperature curves depend on GISS fudge factors. ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT: Hot, Flat and Crowded
    ... backing up the surface stations, which do survery the entire planet. ... engineer of mine did measurements like that he would be out of a job. ... modelers of climatic data have not done a site by site hands on ... the American Academy of Science. ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
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  • Re: No Sun link to climate change
    ... the two graphs, one showing the cosmic ray variation, the the other the temperature rise from 1970 on. ... I don't think that many other solar physicists will be able to get any better explanation of the data, and will also conclude that the solar output has declined since 1980. ... It is now believed that the release of these gases was triggered by volcanic activity and tectonic shifts which caused Greenland to break apart from Europe and the Atlantic basin to open. ... Although these gases were released over 20,000 years, measurements reveal that we are releasing these gases from Human activities and not natural activities at a far more rapid pace than the Earth shaping volcanism of eons ago. ...
    (soc.retirement)
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