Re: OT - Hansen acknowledges solar forcing

On Sun, 1 Feb 2009 07:58:59 +0000 (UTC), don@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Don
Klipstein) wrote:

In article <aqh5o4td0trqnat33rb4eoi9vvuv54bp2d@xxxxxxx>, Raveninghorde wrote:
On Thu, 29 Jan 2009 09:34:40 -0800 (PST), bill.sloman@xxxxxxxx wrote:

I thought you would benefit from an overview I put together for my
younger daughter. Her school are opposing Kyoto in a UK youth
parliament debate. I've already posted many of the links for you in
previous posts.

Has CO2 increased or is this just natural variation?

Summary:
http://www.biokurs.de/treibhaus/180CO2/bayreuth/bayreuth1e.htm
detail:
http://www.biomind.de/nogreenhouse/daten/EE%2018-2_Beck.pdf

The CO2 data that the AGW denialists and skeptics like, as in well above
300 ppmv before the 1950's, comes from air samples close to ground over
land. A lot of the time those run high in CO2, due to frequent times of
lack of sunlight (plants do less to no removal of CO2 emitted by animals,
bacteria, molds, fungi, yeasts, etc.) combined with lack of convection
(which usually runs lower when sunlight is absent).
Check out the story that CO2 measurements from the Wisconsin Tower
tells for a time of year when plants are active there, even as opposed to
Wisconsin in winter!

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html

How reliable are current measurements:

CO2 has been measured at Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii since 1959.
Mauna Loa is the world's largest active volcano and emits CO2.

http://www.mlo.noaa.gov/programs/esrl/volcanicco2/volcanicco2.html

/quote

A volcanic component can be estimated by taking the difference in
concentration between periods when the plume is present and periods
immediately before and after that exhibit baseline conditions.

Right after the 1984 eruption, Mauna Loa emitted as much CO2 as an
American city of 40,000 people. By 2005, these emissions had fallen by
a factor of about 100.

/end quote

Mauna Loa does not erupt much, and the people at the observatory do take
care to exclude eruptions. Notice the Mauna Loa observatory record to
have a few gaps. They have sufficient accuracy to discern seasonal
variations of a couple ppmv through most years since 1958 despite the
volcano.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html

which links to

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/


I doubt the measurements. The "globally distributed network of air
sampling sites" gives a corrected figure which agrees too closely with
the Mauna Loa data. Mauna Loa measurements should be higher than the
global average.

The CO2 solubilty pump moves CO2 from higher latitudes to the tropics
where due to warming of the water outgassing occurs. Given Mauna
Loa's position in the tropics by the ocean the CO2 readings will be
significantly higher than the global average.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solubility_pump

I need to look at the seasonal variation in the measurements at Mauna
Loa. Given the small amount of land in the area the seasonal variation
should be small due to local cuases. The CO2 due to outgassing may be
discernable but should be delayed and would depend on the ocean
currents. I'm not even sure wether the currents in this area are from
the northern or southern hemisphere but this reflects my current
ignorance in this area.

I still feel that volcanic CO2 has been removed too successfully from
the data. I fear that any odd measurment has been rejected and
replaced by a suitable typical figure.


The data before 1959 is taken from Law Dome ice core samples.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/lawdome.html

Note that the air is actually 40 to 80 years younger than the ice it
is trapped in. Or is it? Has the information been massaged to give the
right answer?

/quote

The enclosed air at any depth in the ice has a mean age, (aa), that is
younger than the age of the host ice layer (ai), from which the air is
extracted.

/end quote

Can you cite something to support this claim other than highly
questionable stuff that likely uses highly questionable sources (such as
CO2 determinations at low altitude over land having life forms and failing
to exclude the there-localized spikes that the Wisconsin Tower exposes)?

Of course the air trapped in the ice is at least as old as the ice!

That is not what they say here:

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/lawdome.html

which is where I got my quote. If you disagree it is not with a highly
questionable source.



What is the temperature increase?


SNIP to reduce length


The global distribution of surface stations is nearly useless:

We still have the UAH and RSS determinations from the satellite data.
NASA GISS also uses satellite determinations of surface temperature and
trends thereof to develop and modify correction factors for surface
station data.

http://www.cao-rhms.ru/krut/OAO2007_12E_03.pdf section 2.

OK, I dared to visit a .ru website...

Fig. 4: Of the 4 plots in the graph, 2 are coin-flipping results. The
caption under the graph does say in part "and results of random variation
of global temperature with an annual step of .066 K". The graph covers
1855-2005.
I have trouble believing that annual step of .066 K/C degree over 150
years results from an average honest set of coin tosses.

You are commenting on section 3. Section 2 covers the problem with
poor surface staion distribution. The article claims an error of 0.28K
due this. I can't spot a flaw in this part of the article.


SNIP to reduce length
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: OT - Hansen acknowledges solar forcing
    ... The CO2 data that the AGW denialists and skeptics like, ... Check out the story that CO2 measurements from the Wisconsin Tower ... CO2 has been measured at Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii since 1959. ... The seasonal variation in CO2 as measured at Mauna Loa is overwhelmingly ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT - Hansen acknowledges solar forcing
    ... Has CO2 increased or is this just natural variation? ... Check out the story that CO2 measurements from the Wisconsin Tower ... CO2 has been measured at Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii since 1959. ... The "globally distributed network of air ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT - Hansen acknowledges solar forcing
    ... Has CO2 increased or is this just natural variation? ... Check out the story that CO2 measurements from the Wisconsin Tower ... CO2 has been measured at Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii since 1959. ... Mauna Loa is the world's largest active volcano and emits CO2. ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: OT - Hansen acknowledges solar forcing
    ... lack of sunlight (plants do less to no removal of CO2 emitted by animals, ... Check out the story that CO2 measurements from the Wisconsin Tower ... Mauna Loa is the world's largest active volcano and emits CO2. ... significantly higher than the global average. ...
    (sci.electronics.design)
  • Re: CO2-Gehalt der =?Iso-8859-1?Q?Atmosph=C3=A4re?=
    ... So sonderlich viel CO2 kommt ja auch ... Mauna Loa und Kilauea sind vermutlich miteinander verbunden. ... 1983 war der letzte Ausbruch. ...
    (de.sci.chemie)
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