Re: OT: Imprecise assessment of the probability of tipping points in the climate system

On May 16, 7:09 pm, John Larkin
<jjlar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Sat, 16 May 2009 16:51:23 GMT, Charlie E. <edmond...@xxxxxxxx>
wrote:





On Fri, 15 May 2009 08:26:29 -0700, John Larkin
<jjlar...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Fri, 15 May 2009 07:16:55 -0700 (PDT), bill.slo...@xxxxxxxx wrote:

From the PNAS web-site

http://www.pnas.org/content/106/13/5041.full.pdf

We don't know enough about the climate system to know if and when the
Greenland ice-*** or the West Antararctic ice-*** will slide off
into the sea, or whether the Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Circulation will reorganise itself. or whether the Amazon rain forest
will die-back. or of and when El Nino's will become more persistent.

The only allowed outcomes of climate change seem to be disasters. That
says a lot about CC alarmists.

The authors of ths paper asked a bunch of experts in the area to guess
how likely any of this was, and their answers came out as too likely
for comfort, particularly if we let CO2 levels continue to rise ever
more rapidly.

If the experts were conspiring to frighten us out of our wits, they'd
all have guessed high, which they didn't.

But they all did.

But why do you keep posting this climate crap to sed? Post something
about electronics, where it will be obvious whether you are right or
wrong.

Maybe the outcomes of your circuits would be disasters too.

John

John,
Don't happen to read Analog, do you?  In this month's issue is a great
little piece about a group of medicine men complaining that global
warming will bring them doom and gloom as it makes the glaciers
recede, and calling on everyone to ban fire, and kill those that use
it!

Charlie

At some point in my life - mid 40's maybe - I seem to have outgrown
science fiction. Now it's more Victorian literature, history, and
seafaring yarns, with maybe a tinge of sword-and-sandal wizardry stuff
left.

The AGW stuff is still science fiction.

John Larkin does represent a truimph for the anti-global warming
propaganda brigade. They are feeding him a bunch of lies that it
suites him to believe, but he does seem to have absorbed the full set,
despite the fact that he denies hitting the denialist web-sites that
people like Ravinghorde and Eeyore seem to frequnet and cite.

I think things like the Analog bit suggest a healthy scepticism, even
mockery, among the public as regards AGW. It's mostly yet another
bogus excuse for taxation.

Analog has always published satires - we had a reference to
thiotimoline here recently,

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiotimoline

from a story by Isaac Asimov published in Analog in 1948. It's quality
declined badly in the 1980's and I stopped subscribing.

As for AGW being a "bogus excuse for taxation" - John Larkin is
delighted by any excuse to bitch about having to pay taxes, like every
other right-wing nitwit who posts here.

Since he can't - or won't - understand the scientific case for
anthropogenic global warming, he can't follow the economic case for
treating CO2 as a pollutant that damages the environment, which leaves
him free to make all kinds of fatuous claims.

--
Bill Sloman, Nijmegen
.

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