Low Cost Hydrogen is here to stay

The world each year presently produces and consumes by burning 28.3
billion barrels of oil along with 5.2 billion tonnes of coal, and 2.2
billion tonnes of natural gas. This produces 33.6 billion tonnes of
carbon dioxide along with energy at an average rate of 15 trillion
watts thermal. For this the world pays $4 trillion a year out of its
$66 trillion a year annual production for this oil. This is a recent
rise from $2 trillion per year.

Since hydrogen's upper and lower explosive limits, and other burning
characteristics largely match those of all carbon based fuels,
hydrogen is easily substituted as a heat source in all these uses. In
fact 3.34 billion tons of hydrogen would displace ALL OTHER FUELS.

At present the lowest cost way of making hydrogen is the shift
reaction. This is where carbon plus water are reacted so that the
oxygen is scavanged off the water and leave the hydrogen. So, 3 tons
of carbon plus 9 tons of water are used to make 11 tons of carbon-
dioxide and 1 ton of hydrogen. So, to make 3.34 billion tons of
hydrogen from the shift reaction requires 10 billion tons of carbon
and creates 36.7 billion tons of carbon-dioxide. This increases
carbon dioxide output, but centralizes its production which means that
it could be sequestered somehow from these central production points.

Another highly speculative way of making this much hydrogen is through
direct photolytic decomposition of water into hydrogen and oxygen
inside a nuclear reactor. This is about 60% efficient, and so 25 TW
of nuclear power plants Today there are 439 commercial nuclear power
plants operating in 30 countries throughout the world with 0.372 TW
total capacity. 56 countries operate 284 research reactors. There
are 220 reactors on ships and submarines operated by four countries.
All nuclear programs in all nations total $5 trillion. The cost of
disposal of nuclear wast from our current reactors remains an
unresolved problem.

To meet our hydrogen needs with nuclear energy requires a 120,000 fold
increase in the amount of nuclear fuels being used in the world's
economy, and a low-cost resolution of the long term disposal of this
much nucler waste. Assuming the cost of new reactors is 1% the cost
of all previous reactors on a per watt basis, this totals $600
trillion. At 4% per year the cost of capital alone is $24 trillion -
6x today's HIGH fuel costs.

Further, in the first half century of of operating less than 1 TW of
nuclear plants serious accidents occurred and the background radiation
of the planet doubled. On April 26, 1986, the Number Four RBMK
reactor at the nuclear power plant at Chernobyl, Ukraine, went out of
control during a test at low-power, leading to an explosion and fire
that demolished the reactor building and released large amounts of
radiation into the atmosphere. As a result a permanent exlcusion zone
totalling 53,000 sq km was established where humans will not be able
to live for a large number of years.

Assuming safety is 150x in future reactors than at RBMK, we can expect
when operating 25 TW of reactors to create hydrogen through direct
photolytic reduction, to exclude for a period of 10,000 years on
average 1,000 sq km per year would be added to this exclusion area,
and the world would live with a naturally rising level of background
radiation over time, just as it now lives with a naturally rising
carbon dioxide level over time. Over 10,000 years 10 million sq km of
land would be excluded from human habitation.

This is a steady state result. Since the world's economic activity is
closely tied to energy costs, we can expect per capita use to rise
exponentially doubling every 7 to 10 years. So, over even a 30 year
period, total energy use may rise to well over 10x today's rates. So,
total area excluded is a function of total energy use, and so its 10x
larger in 30 years - growing on average at 10,000 sq km per year, and
peaking at 100 million sq km of land in 10,000 years. In 70 years
total energy use would rise to over 100x what it is today - equivalent
on a per capita basis of what a typical millionaire uses (think
private jet, multiple homes, yacht, etc.) - well within possibility -
and then, the exclusion zone of a nuclear powered hydrogen economy
grows at 100,000 sq km per year, and the exclusion zone covers the
entire Earth before it peaks.

Clearly not a viable solution to answer our problems with carbon.

And we haven't even touched on the problems with loose nukes, terror
nukes, and so forth.

Another way to produce 3.36 billion tons of hydrogen per year to
replace our use of carbon is to capture sunlight with solar panels to
produce DC electricity when the sun shines and then use that DC
electricity to make hydrogen from water by electrolytic reduction.
Using alkaline electrolyzers with stainless steel electrodes, this
process can produce 1 metric ton of hydrogen from 9 metric tons of
water with the application of 50 MWh of DC electricity. To produce
3.36 billion tons of hydrogen therefore requires the application of
98.8 TW of solar panels if the panels are located in a region that hs
1,700 hours of insolation per year. With 180 MW per sq km, this
implies an area of 549,000 sq km of solar panels are needed to achieve
this end. Since there are about 16,000,000 sq km of deserts that
have high levels of solar insolation, this involves only covering 3.4%
of the world's deserts.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/deserts/what/world.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deserts_by_area

The amount of land needed is less than that controlled by the two
largest surface mine operators in the world. This is also an amount
of land that is less than the area of the world's 32,345,165 km of
roadways.

So, despite the immense area called for, it seems like an area that is
easily doable.

I have developed an ultra-low-cost CPV system that costs less than
$0.07 per peak watt. I have a factory under construction that will
produce 1 sq km of panels per day. This implies a total cost of
panels of less than $7 trillion. Valuing the hydrogen at $800 per
ton this means this asset produces $2.68 trillion per year in
revenues. The remaining $1.32 trillion in market value is realized as
cost savings to the consumer, or as profits to distributors and re-
marketers. In any case at these prices, the solar power system is
easily installable on well defined lands with well defined access and
support infrastructure.

The $2 billion factory produces 1 sq km per day. To produce ALL the
hydrogen needed in 5,500 days 15 years - requires the production of
100 factories at a cost of $200 billion. By comparison there are over
600 wafer fabs operated throughout the world by 220 companies that
produce ALL the worlds consumer electronics - which cost 6x as much to
build to service a market 1/10th as large.

With a lifespan of 30 to 40 years, the panels will need replaced, but
with industrial growth rates of 7% to 10% per year - power needs will
have grown 10x over that period. This can be supplied by a straight
line increase of panel area, or by being a little more clever.

If we decide to go on the pathway toward massive use of solar energy
we can continue on this pathway by creating powersats that beam energy
from space to the terrestrial solar collectors. That is, well before
the terrestrial panels exceed 1 million sq km, we can put collectors
in space to power solar pumped IR lasers that beam energy to the then
pre-existing solar panels. In this way, existing solar panel output
may be increased 10x today's levels. Then, 30 years after that, laser
energies may be increased, along with improved beam steering to
provide direct from space to end user power links - to create a
seamless powernet - similar to the coming global hotspot - or to
todays global GPS - without any massive ground equipment or shipping
of fuels. In that far off day within the next 60 years - every man
woman and child will have low-cost access to VTOL ballistic transport
and interplanetary space travel will as common as air travel or sea
travel is today all powered by powerful solar pumped lasers.

This is a future that is doable, and one that is appealing to many and
one that we could achieve in short order.
.

Relevant Pages

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